Bengals vs. Titans: NFL Divisional Round betting odds, preview, and pick

The young Cincinnati Bengals won the franchise’s first playoff game in 31 years last Saturday, and now they must visit the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference, the Tennessee Titans, to see if they can keep their postseason dreams alive.

Let’s take a closer look at this big-time Divisional Round game.

The game is the first of four in the Divisional Round, set to kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Bengals are the No. 4 seed in the AFC after they won the AFC North, and are 11-7 overall. They are also 11-7 against the spread.

The Titans are the No. 1 seed after winning the AFC South division, and sit at 12-5 overall. They are 10-7 against the spread, including a 6-3 mark at home.

The line on this game opened with the Titans as a three-point favorite, and early money has come in on the rested Titans, as the line is now at 3.5. The total sits at 47.

Advantage to the rested

In the current NFL playoff format, it is extra advantageous to earn the top seed, as the Titans did this year with their impressive performances in the middle of the schedule. It does many beneficial things, not the least of which include automatic advancement to the second round, home-field advantage, and a bye week to allow injured and battered players an opportunity to rest.

This is the longest season in NFL history, and while these players are as finely tuned as any generation that preceded them, this is the point in the season when wear and tear can become a real drag on team performance.

Throughout the regular season, the Bengals’ defensive line was a strength of the team. They brought in defensive end Trey Hendrickson from the New Orleans Saints to make a major impact, and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi had a career year.

Unfortunately, the cost of playing in the Wild Card Round may prove to be a fatal toll for the Bengals’ outlook, as both Hendrickson and Ogunjobi suffered injuries in their victory over the Las Vegas Raiders.

Hendrickson will likely make it on the field if he has no setbacks, but Ogunjobi is done for the year with a foot injury at a time when fellow tackles Josh Tupou and Mike Daniels are also battling ailments.

The Titans suffered the worst injury luck of any team in the NFL this season, so there will be no pity given, and they come in as healthy for this matchup as they’ve been all year. They will surely be champing at the bit to take on a banged-up Bengals front.

Titans running back Derrick Henry is questionable to return from his foot injury, but the Titans have proven they can still run without him, as D’Onta Foreman has averaged the same yards per carry as the team's star running back.

With extra time to prepare and a healthier lineup than a team coming off several emotional games in the final month, the Titans have a real physical and psychological advantage entering this game.

Bengals and Titans betting trends

• Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games
• The Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games
• The Titans are 7-1 straight up in their last eight home games
• The Under is 4-1 in the Titans' last five games
• The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams

Don’t overthink it

I will admit I was surprised that this line opened at -3. Joe Burrow looked fantastic in winning the Bengals' Wild Card game, but the Raiders had the worst pass defense of any team in the playoffs.

The Titans have won big games all year, and head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the more cerebral coaches in the league. With the advantage of playing at home, earning extra rest, and being stronger on defense, look for the Titans to take care of business and continue to reward their backers with a strong victory to kick off the Divisional Round.

Score prediction: Titans 27, Bengals 20

Divisional Round pick: Titans -3.5

Bengals vs. Titans Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Titans to win outright.