Bears vs. Steelers: The best player prop bets for MNF

Two teams going in opposite directions meet at Heinz Field for Monday Night Football, with the Steelers hosting the Bears in what threatens to be a one-sided affair.

Pittsburgh has gone from 1-3 and looking dead and buried, to 4-3 after three gutsy wins. That includes a hard-fought 15-10 win against the Browns in Cleveland last week.

Meanwhile, the Bears are going in the other direction after losing their last three on the spin. The defense is getting shredded as they conceded a total of 875 yards and 71 points in the last two weeks, while their offense is ranked 31st by points per game.

Unsurprisingly, the Steelers come into this as favorites in a game which isn’t set to be too high-scoring.

Najee Harris: Over/Under 80.5 Rushing Yards

I don’t mind admitting my NFL punting life is pretty much a Najee Harris stan account. I love this kid. He is pure class, and the more he settles into the league, the more he is flashing the level of performance that made him the first running back off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft.

There are only 11 running backs with more yards per game than the rookie, although that doesn’t tell the whole story. Harris is averaging 68.4 yards per game rushing on the season, but has stepped it up a notch recently as the Steelers have started trusting him more.

The Steelers have started to increase Harris’ work and it’s paying off, as they've gone 3-0 in that time. Now he gets to feast on a Bears run defense that gives up 112.9 yards per game to running backs (ranked 29th in the NFL).

In the Bears' last three games, Green Bay’s Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon ran a combined 24 times for 115 yards, Tampa Bay’s Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones combined to run 25 times for 144 yards, and San Francisco’s Elijah Mitchell ran 18 times for 137 yards.

There is no running back committee in Pittsburgh, so expect Harris to get 20+ touches and do plenty of damage.

Pick: Over 80.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Justin Fields: Over/Under 183.5 Passing Yards

Justin Fields had one of his best outings of his rookie year last week against the 49ers, as he completed 70.4% of his passes and rushed for 103 yards, but his total yardage through the air isn’t up to NFL-caliber just yet.

Fields may be on the up, but his offense certainly isn’t. The Bears have allowed 30 sacks this season, the most in the NFL, and Fields has been sacked four times in each of the last three games. The Steelers will be putting huge pressure on Fields, and that could lead to some good chances for the Pittsburgh defense to make plays.

In the six games Fields has started, he’s averaged just 153 passing yards, with his top two receivers Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson struggling to make an impact. The Steelers' pass defense is improving, and they’ve conceded an average of just 187.5 yards per game passing since Week 6.

This is set to be a tough night on the road for Fields, so take the Under.

Pick: Under 183.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Pat Freiermuth: Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards

The good news for Pat Freiermuth is that he seems to be forging a nice relationship with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The rookie has had seven targets from Big Ben in each of his last two games, and that has led to a combined 11 catches for 102 yards.

The bad news though is that I still can’t trust him. His target share this season is just 10% – although that has grown to 19% if we take the last two games in isolation – and Ben’s first port of call in the Steelers’ offense is Diontae Johnson, whose target share is a massive 24% on the season. JuJu Smith-Schuster’s season-ending injury has opened up more targets for Freiermuth, but there’s still a battle with Chase Claypool and Najee Harris to get some of the scraps from Diontae’s table.

Pick: Under 34.5 receiving yards (-113)