Baltimore Ravens 10-point favorites against Tennessee Titans

Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (right) takes a handoff from quarterback Ryan Tannehill. (Photo by Daniel Dunn/Icon Sportswire)

Dan Halverson

January 9th, 2020

The best team from the NFL regular season will kick off its postseason campaign Saturday evening. The Baltimore Ravens, led by star quarterback Lamar Jackson, will take on the team nobody wants to face—the Tennessee Titans.

Baltimore finished the regular season 14-2 overall and 10-6 against the spread. The Ravens have rattled off 12 straight wins, an impressive feat in today’s NFL. The Titans are riding high off a win over the defending champion Patriots in last week’s Wild Card Round. They finished the regular season 9-7 straight up and 9-7 against the spread.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (CBS)

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total

Tennessee Titans	+10	+330	O 46.5
Baltimore Ravens	-10	-440	U 46.5

The Ravens were dominant during the regular season

The Ravens are No. 1 in everybody’s power rankings, and for good reason. They were the No. 1 offense in the league, with 33.2 points per game. They were also No. 3 on defense in points allowed, behind only the Patriots and Bills. The question that remains is whether their winning ways and overall dominance and efficiency numbers will continue in the playoffs. Given head coach John Harbaugh’s admitted commitment to advanced analytics, it’s fair to assume his star players will continue to be put in positions to succeed.

While Jackson gets all the deserved attention, the biggest contributor to the Ravens’ defensive success has been the addition of former Seahawks safety Earl Thomas. Thomas has fully recovered from injury and continues to be one of the elite safeties in the NFL. He covers ground and makes plays through an understanding of the game that not every safety in this league is capable of. How Thomas performs against arguably the most efficient pure passing quarterback of 2019 will be a fascinating matchup.

Ryan Tannehill when asked about Earl Thomas:
"A guy we have a lot of respect for and are going to have to account for."

Earl Thomas when asked about Ryan Tannehill:
"If Tannehill tries to pass on us, I don't think that will go in their favor."#Titans #TENvsBAL pic.twitter.com/GB9TyNmt9o
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) January 7, 2020

Tannehill was a revelation in 2019

Tannehill has had possibly the best season of any quarterback, Jackson included, in terms of pure passing statistics. Tannehill finished No. 1 in overall quarterback rating and yards per attempt, No. 2 in touchdown percentage, and No. 3 in completion percentage. Paired with the biggest freak of a running back in the NFL, Derrick Henry, the Titans offense has had the NFL's best red-zone efficiency since Tannehill took over.

This was a big play at 5:41 in the 3rd Quarter leading by 1...Davis isn't a burner and never gets very much separation even from the slower dbs but he absolutely has to squeeze this ball and hold on to it. Tannehill puts it in a great spot, CD gets both feet down. Bad drop... pic.twitter.com/JAGm4PstyJ
— James Holaday (@Titan_Holaday) January 8, 2020

Titans will try to control the ball

Playing at home, rested, and with the No. 1 offense in the league, I expect the Ravens to win and advance. But the Titans play a ball-possession game that limits overall possessions and shortens the game, which puts points at a premium. For all the attention Tannehill is getting, the general public still doesn’t see Tannehill as an elite quarterback. Value is on the road team in this matchup.

NFL free pick: Titans +10

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