All signs point to Packers pulling off upset against 49ers

Fresh off of their bye week, the Green Bay Packers head to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara for a crucial intra-conference clash with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Oddsmakers stamped the home team as a nominal favorite in this tilt that could shift the balance of power in the NFC. However, recent stats and trends both indicate that the underdog is worthy of a play.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

San Francisco has let its backers down of late, with a 1-3-1 record against the spread in its last five contests. The Niners’ early season bye week (Week 4) seems be taking a toll on both sides of the ball.

San Francisco's defense has taken a step back

The 49ers defense has regressed over the last three weeks and has allowed an average of 319.6 yards per contest during that span (253 per game for the season). The offense is riddled with injuries, as tight end George Kittle (ankle/knee) is in danger of missing his third straight game after a missed practice Wednesday. He was joined on the sideline by running back Matt Breida (ankle) and wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders (ribs) and Deebo Samuel (shoulder). Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo could have his work cut out for him without a full complement of offensive weapons, even against Green Bay’s porous defense (27th in yards allowed per play).

Packers are peaking at the right time

The Packers seem to be getting their act together. Wide receiver Davante Adams is back in the fold for Green Bay and has already been targeted 21 times between Weeks 9 and 10. The Aaron Rodgers-led attack has gained more 370 yards of offense in three of their last four contests. The Packers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games and have covered in five straight against teams with winning records.

Pick: Packers +3

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