AFC West favored to produce NFL's next Super Bowl champ

It’s only July, but there’s already plenty of speculation in the air surrounding the upcoming NFL season. In fact, we’ve already started taking wagers on which division is most likely to crown the next Super Bowl champion, and it’s drawn some interesting money.

The Chiefs give the AFC West the edge

Currently, the AFC West is favored at +300. This is due in large part to the presence of the Kansas City Chiefs, who won it all two years ago and fell short in the most recent Super Bowl. Yes, the division also houses the Los Angeles Chargers and Oakland Raiders, two teams that could be seen as threats to improve. However, if you’re betting on the AFC West to win the Super Bowl, you’re likely doing so with the Chiefs in mind.

The AFC North presents intriguing value

Perhaps Kansas City is just that good, but +300 seems a bit short. I think there’s a better value play on the board right now, and it comes in the form of the +525 fourth choice.

Last year, the AFC North produced three playoff teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns combined to win 34 games, and there are plenty of reasons to believe these squads will be strong again this coming season. I wouldn’t have expected the division to be favored, but I’m a bit surprised it’s the fourth choice behind the NFC South and NFC West, which both sit at +400.

This is a numbers play for me. If I bet the AFC North, I’ve got chances at three live teams. If injuries plague the Chiefs, +300 looks far from appetizing. I’d rather get nearly double the price with the North and have plenty of opportunities to cash when the postseason rolls around.

In Texas we trust

I’ve also got one other play. We’re taking bets on the state of the NFL champion, and I’ll need to take some sort of swing on the state of Texas at +2500.

The Texans are a dumpster fire (to put it mildly), but the Cowboys will have Dak Prescott back under center with a full complement of weapons around him in a very weak division. If the Bucs stub their toes, the NFC is anyone’s conference to win. Why not take a small shot at this price?

NFL Picks: AFC North (+525), Texas (+2500)