5 NFL quarterback prop picks to bet for 2021

A number of quarterbacks will face high expectations for the 2021 NFL season, following breakthrough performances, a change of scenery via free agency, or a return from injury.

With the preseason set to kick off in a month, let's examine five prop bets involving a few of these star QBs and predict whether they'll rise to the occasion or fall short in 2021.

Joe Burrow Over/Under 4,250.5 passing yards

The Bengals' hopes of a franchise renaissance ride on the success of second-year star Joe Burrow.

Last season, the 2020 No. 1 overall draft pick showed promise, until his season was cut short by a devastating leg injury in Week 11.

Prior to his injury, Burrow ranked first among quarterbacks in snaps and dropbacks, second in pass attempts, and ninth in passing yards.

He is expected to be fully healthy by Week 1, when the Bengals host the Vikings, and will gain a talented new weapon in rookie Ja'Marr Chase (Burrow's former LSU teammate), whom Cincinnati drafted with the No. 5 overall pick in 2021.

According to Pro Football Focus, Burrow is projected to throw for 4,538 yards in 2021, which would set a single-season franchise record.

The Heisman Trophy winner was on pace to hit 4,300 yards through 16 games last season.

With a 17th game added to the 2021 schedule, Chase, and a slightly improved offensive line, expect Burrow to produce big numbers this season.

Pick: Burrow Over 4,250.5 passing yards (-112)

Justin Herbert Over/Under 4,450.5 passing yards

The other quarterback from Burrow's draft class who had everyone talking last season was Los Angeles Chargers gunslinger Justin Herbert, who won Offensive Rookie of the Year and set NFL rookie records in touchdown passes (31) and most 300-yard games (eight).

Herbert got his first start in Week 2, after Tyrod Taylor suffered a punctured lung during pregame treatment by the medical staff. The Oregon product remained the starter for the rest of the season and led Los Angeles to a 6-9 record in head coach Anthony Lynn's final season.

In 2021, Herbert will play under first-year coach Brandon Staley, who served as defensive coordinator of the Los Angeles Rams, and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, the former quarterbacks coach of the New Orleans Saints.

On the down side, Herbert lost star tight end Hunter Henry in free agency but gained a suitable replacement in Jared Cook.

L.A.'s offense should remain pass-happy under the new coaching regime, and with an upgraded offensive line, Herbert should build off of last year's surprise season and rank near the top of the league in passing yards.

Pick: Herbert Over 4,450.5 passing yards (-112)

Tua Tagovailoa Over/Under 3,850.5 passing yards

A second-year quarterback at risk of a down season is Miami Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa.

The fifth overall pick of the 2020 NFL Draft entered last season as a bit of question mark, because of a severe hip injury he endured near the end of his junior season at Alabama.

Miami still took its chances on the quarterback and handed him his first start in Week 8, after Ryan Fitzpatrick (now with Washington) guided Miami to a 3-3 record.

In games against the Denver Broncos in Week 11 and Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16, Tagovailoa was benched mid-game for Fitzpatrick because of shaky performances.

He ended the season with a three-interception outing in a blowout loss to Buffalo, which cost Miami a playoff spot.

Tagovailoa gained some help in the offseason, with the addition of receiver Will Fuller and college teammate Jaylen Waddle, but Miami's offensive line is a concern.

Veteran backup Jacoby Brissett could see ample playing time, should Tagovailoa display the same inconsistencies we saw during his rookie season.

Look for another year of learning curves for Tagovailoa and hit the Under on his passing yards.

Pick: Tagovailoa Under 3,850.5 passing yards (-112)

Matt Stafford Over/Under 4,700.5 passing yards

Beyond the second-year quarterbacks, longtime Detroit Lions star Matthew Stafford is another player bound for intense scrutiny, as the new starter for the Los Angeles Rams.

As part of L.A.'s high-octane offense, Stafford is likely to experience a bounce-back season statistically.

However, injuries have been an issue for the 33-year-old, who missed half the 2019 season because of non-displaced fractures in his back and played through less-serious injuries in 2020.

To hit the Over on 4,700.5 passing yards, Stafford must average 276.5 yards per game in 2021.

Former Rams QB Jared Goff averaged 282.5 yards per game from 2018-2020, so Stafford could reasonably replicate that production with his new teammates, including receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Van Jefferson.

It may be optimistic to think he can stay upright for a full season, but barring any injuries, Stafford is in prime position to surpass 4,700 yards with the Rams.

Pick: Stafford Over 4,700.5 passing yards (+108)

Tom Brady Over/Under 4,500.5 passing yards

As for the oldest quarterback in the league, 43-year-old Tom Brady will enter his 22nd NFL season with his sights set on an eighth Super Bowl ring and the opportunity to break a few records.

The reigning Super Bowl MVP will work with the same roster that earned the Lombardi Trophy last season, and he'll get a true offseason (unlike 2020) to further jell with his teammates.

Brady ranked third in the league in passing yards (4,742) last year and second in touchdown passes (40) and pass attempts (610).

The Bucs drew one of the easiest schedules in 2021, so if they go up quickly on their competition, it could mean fewer pass attempts for Brady.

Nonetheless, Bruce Arians likes to air it out and will likely keep the ball in the hands of the greatest of all time, regardless of the scoreboard.

Pick: Brady Over 4,500.5 passing yards (-103)