NFL Best Bets for Thanksgiving 2024

A trio of NFL games highlight Thanksgiving festivities, and YouBet will seek to feast upon the following selections. All odds lines courtesy of BetMGM, times listed as Eastern.

Bears at Lions (12:30 p.m.): Lions -10

Lions are 8-4 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2012 and 2-1 ATS with head coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff, and favorites are 38-19 ATS in Thanksgiving games over the last 20 years. And double-digit favorites are 9-0 ATS since 2005. These numbers bode well for the Lions, who have covered eight of their last nine games, and Detroit can’t be complacent with the surging 9-2 Philadelphia on their heels, only one game behind and certifying themselves as serious NFC contenders in recent weeks. 

Chicago failed to show for its last road test, losing 29-9 to Arizona, and their declining defense is a real concern against the league’s top-scoring offense (Lions average 32.7 points per game, scoring 102 combined points over the last three games). Caleb Williams has played better the last two weeks, but the Bears have found ways to squander his efforts through awful defense, surrendering 1,496 total yards over the last four games. And after a pair of heartbreaking losses to Green Bay and Minnesota, extending their losing streak to five, it’s difficult to envision the Bears having much left with the short turnaround this week. 

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Giants at Cowboys (4:30 p.m.): Over 37.5

Cowboys got their offense going in a 34-26 win at Washington last week. Dallas isn’t as good as they looked, but they remain eligible to deliver a high-scoring output against a Giants defense that hasn’t stopped anybody since September. Giants came up completely flat following the release of Daniel Jones last week, scoring only seven points in a one-sided home loss to the Buccaneers, but they’ve performed at a much higher level on the road, defeating the Seahawks and Browns and losing one-score games to the Steelers, Commanders, and Panthers. 

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Both defenses are not good. Dallas is the second-worst scoring defense in the league, allowing 29 points per game and a league-worst 37.4 points in five home games, and the Cowboys won’t be able to sustain any defensive momentum off a victory. Defense won’t be the focus in this match-up of bad teams, and we like the Over.

Dolphins at Packers (8:20 p.m.): Under 47

We don’t trust the Packers, but don’t want any part of Tua Tagovailoa in cold games. Temperatures are forecasted to be in the 20s, with the possibility of snow flurries, and that’s been a real bugaboo for the Dolphins quarterback, who 0-7 straight up in games played at 40 degrees or less. The Dolphins rank 24th in scoring offense, averaging 19.5 points per games, and only two teams in the NFL have averaged fewer points in road games than Miami (15.6 points per game).

Miami’s defense has improved in recent weeks, playing a key role in their three-game win streak by holding the last three opponents under 20 points, including an important 23-15 road win over the Rams, and the Under is 4-2-1 in the last seven Packers games. Both teams are getting after it defensively, and the Under is 11-6 in Thanksgiving night games since 2006, 8-3 in games where the total was 43 or higher.

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