2021 NFC South betting preview: Bucs set for division domination

The New Orleans Saints swept the NFC South with a 6-0 record in 2020, but this season, the division will belong to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tom Brady and company got off to a sluggish start in 2020, the quarterback's first year in town, then put it all together after their bye week to go on an 8-0 run, straight to a Super Bowl title.

With all 22 starters from that title team back on the roster, the Bucs are a heavy favorite to run the division in 2021, while the Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers enter a state of rebuild.

Let’s take a closer look at the NFC South and predict how each team will fare in the upcoming 17-game season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 record: 11-5
Key additions: RB Giovani Bernard, LB Joe Tryon
Key departures: N/A

At age 43, Brady added a seventh Super Bowl ring to his collection in his first year in Tampa Bay, despite the lack of a normal offseason, because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Bucs took some time to jell with their new quarterback but hit their stride after a 27-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12.

A true offseason should allow Tampa Bay to pick up where it left off.

The offense ranked second in the league in passing yards (289.1), third in scoring (30.8 points per game), and seventh in total offense, while Brady ranked second, behind Aaron Rodgers, in touchdown passes (40).

The Tampa defense ranked first against the run (80.6 yards per game), eighth in points allowed (22.2), and fifth in sacks.

Aside from free-agent acquisition Giovani Bernard, who should help boost the run game (28th in rushing yards last season), the Bucs added depth in the draft and will get both offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles back.

With one of the easiest schedules in the league, Tampa Bay will come out swinging, with a chance to sweep the division. As long as they're healthy, the Buccaneers will cruise into the postseason with at least 12 wins.

New Orleans Saints

2020 record: 12-4
Key additions: RB Devonta Freeman
Key departures: QB Drew Brees, TE Jared Cook, CB Janoris Jenkins, WR Emmanuel Sanders

Not only did New Orleans lose longtime quarterback Drew Brees to retirement, but the team was forced to cut more than $100 million in salary to get under the 2021 cap, which dropped to $182.5 million.

Star players, like receiver Michael Thomas, running back Alvin Kamara, and defensive end Cameron Jordan, all remain, but much of the roster depth has been decimated.

That lack of depth may become a problem quickly in New Orleans. The league could suspend cornerback Marshon Lattimore for his offseason arrest, and Thomas is still on the mend from ankle surgery.

As for the quarterback situation, no clear starter has emerged in the battle between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill.

Last season, with Brees, the Saints ranked 12th in total offense, sixth in rushing (141.6 yards per game), 19th in passing (234.9 YPG), and fifth in scoring (30.1 points per game).

The defense ranked in the top five in rushing and passing defense, scoring, and takeaways, but it will likely regress, after it lost top pass rusher Trey Hendrickson (13.5 sacks), defensive tackles Malcom Brown and Sheldon Rankins, and corner Janoris Jenkins.

The Saints drew the 22nd most difficult schedule in the league and are projected to win nine games this season.

Atlanta Falcons

2020 record: 4-12
Key additions: TE Kyle Pitts, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, RB Mike Davis
Key departures: WR Julio Jones, RB Todd Gurley

New head coach Arthur Smith will attempt to right the ship in Atlanta, after the team went 4-12, behind a dreadful defense, in Dan Quinn's final season.

The Falcons ranked last in the league in pass defense and 19th in scoring defense (25.9 points allowed) but were sixth against the run (104.8 yards). The unit also recorded just 29 sacks (tied for 23rd in the league) and ranked 18th in takeaways. 

As for the offense, Matt Ryan and company ranked fifth in passing yards (272.7) and 16th in scoring (24.8). The rushing attack averaged just 95.8 yards per game (27th), but Smith might be able to fix that issue, considering he helped Derrick Henry rush for more than 2,000 yards last season, as the Tennessee Titans' offensive coordinator.

Atlanta signed Mike Davis in free agency, following a respectable performance (642 yards, six scores) in 2020 as a fill-in for injured Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey.

With the 2021 No. 4 draft pick, the Falcons also added tight end Kyle Pitts, who many consider a generational talent.

However, the departure of veteran wideout Julio Jones will hurt Atlanta's offense.

On the plus side, the Falcons own the third-easiest schedule, and one that is especially light in the front half.

Six wins is not unmanageable, but it will be a tall order for a team in transition.

Carolina Panthers

2020 record: 5-11
Key additions: QB Sam Darnold, CB Jaycee Horn, LB Haason Reddick
Key departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Curtis Samuel

The Panthers are the most unpredictable team in the NFC South.

In the offseason, they traded Teddy Bridgewater to Denver and sent a 2021 sixth-round pick and 2022 second- and fourth-round picks to the New York Jets to acquire quarterback Sam Darnold, whose production (45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions in three seasons) doesn't evoke confidence.

Whether his performance was a product of his environment will be determined in Carolina, where he'll reunite with former Jets receiver Robby Anderson and play alongside McCaffrey, maybe the most dynamic running back in the NFL.

Off a year where he recorded the third-most scrimmage yards in a single season in NFL history (2,392), McCaffrey played just three games in 2020 because of injury.

In 2021, he will compete behind a revamped offensive line that ranks 30th in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

Young talent made up much of last year's defense, which ranked 18th in points surrendered (25.1) and against the pass (239.1 yards), as well as 20th against the run (121 yards).

Another year of experience should lead to improvement, as should the addition of edge rusher Haason Reddick, who recorded 12.5 sacks for Arizona last season. 

With the 26th most difficult schedule, and the chance to progress with a new QB and a healthy McCaffrey, Carolina could make a run for second place in the division, under the best-case scenario.

More realistically, though, the Panthers will settle for another below-.500 season.