NCAA Tournament Regional Picks and Preview

The first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament kicks off Thursday afternoon, and YouBet previews the regions, picking the winner, a sleeper, and possible first-round upset for each.

East Region

The No. 1 overall seed and reigning champion Connecticut heads the deepest region. Two other semifinalists from last year, San Diego St. and FAU, are also in the top half of the region, and #2-seed Iowa St. (Big 12), #3-seed Illinois (Big 10), and #4-seed Auburn (SEC), were all conference tournament winners.

Top selection 

Deep at every position, Connecticut lost only three games and meets every statistical metric, ranking first in offensive efficiency and 11th in defensive efficiency.

Sleeper

With UConn being such a prohibitive favorite, high-scoring Auburn (83.3 points per game) qualifies as a sleeper. The Tigers are known for full-court pressure, and Auburn ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and fourth in defensive efficiency. 

First-round upset watch

#11-seed Duquesne over #6-seed BYU

Duquesne holds opponents to 66 points per game and 41% field-goal shooting, and BYU relies on perimeter offense.

West Region

The West is widely considered to be the weakest region. #1-seed North Carolina, which rebounded with a 27-7 season after failing to make the tournament last year, has played championship-level defense at times this season, but the Tar Heels lack depth and can’t afford offensive lapses from high-scoring guard R.J. Davis.

Top selection

#2-seed Arizona improved significantly on the defensive side this year (11th in defensive efficiency) and received a favorable draw in the bottom half of the region. With their outstanding guard play, size, and rebounding prowess, the up-tempo Wildcats will be a tough out in the West.

Sleeper

#11-seed New Mexico is favored over #6-seed Clemson in the opening round, and the Lobos caught fire in the Mountain West Conference tourney, defeating three consecutive tournament teams (Boise St., Colorado St., and San Diego St.). Watch out for star guard Jaelen House!

First-round upset watch

#12-seed Grand Canyon over #5-seed Saint Mary’s

Led by four transfers (Tyon Grant-Foster, Duke Brennan, Collin Moore, and Lok Wur), well-balanced Grand Canyon enters with 29 wins, displaying the ability to pull out close affairs with their offensive firepower. 

South Region

The top two seeds have questions entering the tournament. 

#1-seed Houston went 30-4, but the Cougars lost a key reserve, freshman big man Jojo Tugler, to a season-ending injury in early March and offered little resistance against physical Iowa St. in the Big 12 tournament final, losing 69-41. Have they already peaked?

#2 Marquette expects to have star guard Tyler Kolek back, but the Golden Eagles have been known to struggle offensively in the postseason and have been held under 80 points in five of the last six games.

Top selection

Fifth nationally in offensive efficiency, #3-seed Kentucky can be unstoppable when their guards get rolling (Rob Dillingham, Antonio Reevers, and Reed Sheppard). The nation’s leading three-point shooting team (41.2%) will need to get stops (110th-ranked on defense), but the Wildcats showed signs of improvement winning at Tennessee in the season finale. 

Sleeper

Buzz Williams appears to have #9 Texas A&M peaking, blowing out Kentucky in the SEC tournament quarterfinals. If guards Wade Taylor IV and Tyrece Radford are playing at a high level, the Aggies have the offensive firepower and size to beat anybody.

First-round upset watch

#10-seed Boise St./Colorado winner over #7-seed Florida

Florida won’t be able to compensate for the loss of key big man Micah Handlogten, who sustained a fractured leg in the SEC tournament final.

Midwest Region

After losing to 16th-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round last year, Purdue earned the top seed in the Midwest with a 29-4 record. All-American Zach Edey, the nation’s leading scorer, can be counted upon for scoring and rebounding. The question is whether he’ll receive the necessary guard play.

#2-seed Tennessee missed out on a top seed after losing the regular season finale and first game of the SEC tournament, but the Volunteers remain dangerous behind Player of the Year contender Dalton Knecht.

Top selection

After finishing second to Connecticut in the Big East, battle-tested Creighton (#3-seed) enters the NCAA tournament as a legitimate title contender, ranking in the top 25 in offensive (13th) and defensive (24th) efficiency.

Sleeper

This has been viewed as a down year for #5-seed Gonzaga, but the Bulldogs only lose to good teams. The up-tempo Zags work the ball inside effectively and appear to have a favorable draw in the early rounds.

First-round upset watch

#13-seed Samford over #4-seed Kansas

Kansas lacks depth. Leading scorer Kevin McCullar Jr. is out with injury, Hunter Dickinson is dealing with a shoulder issue, and 29-5 Samford will give them issues with their fast-paced “Bucky Ball” offense.