Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: The best prop bets for Game 2
The first matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets was a second-half blowout by Dame Lillard & Co., as the Blazers used a 38-point third-quarter to take control and never look back en route to a 123-109 victory.
Game 2 is set for Monday evening and a big bounce back will be needed by the Nuggets if they want to avoid being in a dangerous hole. In preparation for the big matchup, let’s take a look at the three best props to bet for Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets.
Michael Porter Jr. Over/Under 3.5 3-point fields goals made
Michael Porter Jr. has become an electric scorer for the Denver Nuggets with Jamal Murray out for the postseason, and the former lottery pick has all the tools needed to be successful at this level. In Game 1, however, he struggled to get the ball in from deep, shooting just 1-10 from beyond the 3-point line. In Game 2, fans should expect a better effort from the talented young player.
Michael Porter Jr: "I do know that I have more responsibility on my shoulders, and I'm welcoming it. I'm embracing it. It's where I wanted to be...I'm excited to see what teams throw at me and how I'm going to overcome those situations." pic.twitter.com/osYCs6if3s
— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) May 19, 2021
Porter shot 44.5% from three for the season, and has shot 45.7% over his last 10 games. He is clearly an excellent shooter from deep and is not in the middle of a slump. The shots simply didn’t fall in Game 1, but after getting 10 opportunities and 21 total shot attempts, it is clear that the Nuggets have both faith and a need for Porter to take shots.
Game-to-game variance resulted in a poor outcome for Porter in Game 1, but if he replicates the attempts and averages toward the mean he should put up close to 30 points in Game 2 and should make four threes or more. Portland is just 21st in the NBA at defending the three, so expect him to get enough clean looks for this prop to hit.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+130)
Monte Morris Over/Under 2.5 assists
The Nuggets rightfully must go through Nikola Jokic to run the offense, but as Monte Morris continues his full recovery back from a hamstring injury, Denver will call on him to make a bigger impact as a distributor. Morris has one of the top assist to turnover ratios in the NBA, coming in third at 4.4.
Monte Morris NO-LOOK! 😮#NBAXmas on ESPN pic.twitter.com/cKOEibbp4c
— NBA (@NBA) December 26, 2020
In Game 1, Morris split time and only received 22 minutes, but he was effective in scoring 10 points on 5-10 shooting while still dishing out five assists, the same number as Austin Rivers and two more than Facundo Campazzo. Morris is Denver's best facilitator outside of Jokic, and in a must-win situation look for Michael Malone to call on Morris to set up his scorers.
Pick: Over 2.5 assists (-167)
First Half Moneyline
The Nuggets held a lead in the first half of Game 1 before the Trail Blazers' offensive onslaught, and are in a must-win scenario in Game 2. Teams that go down 0-2 only come back to win the series just over 6% of the time in the NBA.
This series line was very nearly a pick ‘em, indicating a fairly even matchup. Playing at home, with extra motivation in a zig-zag theory situation, look for the Nuggets to come out on fire in the first half.
Pick: Nuggets first half moneyline (-122)
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