Team USA vs. Spain: Men's Olympic basketball quarterfinal preview and pick

Heading into the 2020 Olympics, most pundits believed a Team USA-Spain clash was an inevitability. They just never thought it would happen this early in the tournament.

Nine years after meeting in the gold medal game in London, the top two teams in the FIBA world rankings will face off on Tuesday at 12:40 a.m. ET in the quarterfinals. The winner will move onto the semifinals and will be one step closer to achieving Olympic glory.

Both squads have identical 2-1 records following the preliminary round. The U.S. opened the tournament with a shocking 83-76 loss to France, but quickly righted the ship with lopsided Group A victories over Iran and the Czech Republic. Spain, meanwhile, looked solid with double-digit victories over Japan and Argentina before falling unexpectedly to Slovenia on Sunday. Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic proved to be too much for the Spaniards to handle as led the way with 12 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists.

Team USA enters Tuesday’s action as heavy favorites. Let’s take a closer look at some of the top storylines heading into the game.

Team USA is trending in the right direction

The U.S. opened Olympic competition with a disheartening seven-point loss to France, but that defeat can be easily explained. The Americans only had a handful of practices in Las Vegas prior to leaving for Japan, and experienced a last-minute roster shakeup when starting shooting guard Bradley Beal tested positive for COVID-19 and reserve forward Kevin Love left the team due to an ongoing calf injury. Making matters even worse, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton joined the team less than 24 hours before tip-off after wrapping up the NBA Finals.

The team's lack of cohesion and conditioning showed as the U.S. missed its final nine shots and found itself on the wrong side of a decisive 16-2 run to close out the fourth quarter.

Team USA has since beaten Iran 120-66, and obliterated the Czech Republic 119-84. The Americans appear to be gelling, and their rising confidence could make all the difference against a powerhouse like Spain.

Team USA has been shooting the lights out lately

The last time the U.S. faced Spain in Olympic competition was 2016, when the Americans squeaked out a hard-earned 82-76 victory in the semifinals. However, you can throw that result out the window as Team USA’s roster has undergone wholesale changes since that contest. The only players remaining from that celebrated squad are Kevin Durant and Draymond Green.

Few would argue that this version of Team USA is better than its gold medal-winning predecessor, but it does boast more NBA talent than any other roster in the tournament. It also has something that previous incarnations of Team USA lacked: a cadre of marksmen. That was evident against Iran, when the U.S. shot 49% from beyond the arc, and again against the Czech Republic, when the Americans went 17-20 from the floor during a blistering stretch during the second half.

Damian Lillard, Zach LaVine, and Jayson Tatum all ranked in the top 11 in 3-pointers made in the NBA regular season, and Durant, Holiday, and Middleton all shot above 39% from beyond the arc. That's a whole lot of firepower on one team, especially for players who treat the FIBA 3-point line as a mid-range shot.

Spain has experience and cohesion on its side

It’s one thing to have past and present NBA players, as Spain certainly does, but it’s another thing when those players have spent the past decade going to war together. Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez, Sergio Llull, and Victor Claver were all part of the Spanish national team that pushed LeBron James and Co. to the brink at the 2012 Summer Games, and have logged thousands of minutes together over the past nine years in international competitions. Fernandez, Llull, Usman Garuba, and Alberto Abalde are also teammates on Real Madrid and know each other’s tendencies well.

Spain's chemistry is the team's greatest strength, and it was on full display in wins over Japan and Argentina. Rubio has an almost sixth sense when it comes to knowing where his teammates will be, and the Brothers Gasol are among the best-passing big men in the world. Their unselfishness is critical to keeping the offense flowing and keeping defenders on their toes.

Tokyo 2020 Olympics quarterfinal pick: Team USA (-835)

Spain's chemistry is impressive, but la Roja relies on too many veterans who are well past their prime. Team USA has shown remarkable improvement since assembling its full roster and should cruise past Spain thanks to its superior athleticism, speed, and depth. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show. 

Featured player prop: Jayson Tatum Over 12.5 points (-136)

No player looked better against the Czech Republic than Jayson Tatum, who led all scorers with 27 points on 10-16 shooting. The Celtics star hit five of his 10 3-point attempts and consistently used his strength and explosiveness to overwhelm defenders.

It was his strongest performance yet, and afterwards Tatum explained why it's taken a while to warm up on the international stage. "New environment, new basketball, different style of basketball, the rules are different," he told reporters. "Playing on a new team. It’s a lot of things. I was never worried, never concerned. I knew the shots would fall eventually."

Expect a lot more shots to fall for Tatum again on Tuesday as he ramps up his aggressiveness on offense.