Team USA vs. France: Betting odds, preview, and pick for the gold medal game

Here we go again. Two weeks after meeting in the opening game of Tokyo 2020 Olympics men’s basketball tournament, Team USA and France will clash again, and this time it’s for all the marbles. The two teams will face off in the gold medal game on Friday, Aug. 6 at 10:30 p.m. ET.

The U.S. enters the game heavily favored to win its third consecutive gold medal dating back to 2008.

Viva la France!

The last time these two squads shared the court on July 25, France pulled off a shocking 83-76 victory. Evan Fournier led the way with 28 points as Les Bleus pulled away in the fourth quarter on the strength of a dominant 16-2 run. It was a stunning turn of event for Team USA, but it can be easily explained.

The Americans only had a handful of practices in Las Vegas prior to leaving for Japan, and experienced a last-minute roster shakeup when starting shooting guard Bradley Beal tested positive for COVID-19 and reserve forward Kevin Love left the team due to an ongoing calf injury. Making matters even worse, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Khris Middleton joined the team just 24 hours before tip-off after wrapping up the NBA Finals.

The team's lack of cohesion and conditioning showed as the U.S. missed its final nine shots and limped towards the finish line.

Team USA has been on fire since its opening loss

In the four games since its opening loss, the U.S. has looked like an entirely different team. Team USA crushed Iran 120-66, steamrolled the Czech Republic 119-84, blew past Spain 95-81, and trounced Australia 97-78. Gregg Popovich’s crew ranks first among all teams in the tournament in efficiency (127.4), field goal percentage (50.7%), 3-point field goal percentage (41.0%), assists (25.6), and blocks (5.2), and is second in points per game (101.4).

France has been just good enough to win

France has also won its past four games, but has done so in far less convincing fashion. Les Bleus defeated Iran by just 17 points and looked shaky at times against Italy, whom they edged by nine points in a too-close-for-comfort 84-75 victory in the quarterfinals.

France’s weaknesses were especially evident in their 90-89 nail-biter over Slovenia in the semifinals. The French were completely unable to contain Luka Doncic, who finished with a brilliant 16-point, 10-rebound, 18-assist triple-double, and needed a heroic last-second block from Nic Batum to seal the win.

Keys to victory

The key for Team USA is simple: keep Kevin Durant on the floor. The Brooklyn Nets star played just 21 minutes in the opening game after getting in foul trouble against Rudy Gobert. If he can play cleanly – and Bam Adebayo can stay anchored to Gobert – he has a chance to wreck havoc on offense. KD became the U.S.’s all-time career scoring leader in their game against the Czech Republic, and has been virtually unstoppable in the knockout rounds.

The key for France is equally simple: pound it in the post. The U.S. is one of the smaller teams in the tournament and has been consistently burned by mobile bigs who can roll to the hoop. Their switch-everything defense is menacing on the perimeter, but it falls apart as soon as guards like Devin Booker or Damian Lillard are forced to guard centers in the paint. If France features Gobert in the post – and draws copious amounts of fouls – it has a chance to keep this close until the very end.

Team USA is as good as gold

In retrospect, it’s easy to understand why the U.S. lost to France. The team simply didn’t have the time to gel, and players like Holiday, Middleton, and Booker were asked to pick up a new system with new teammates on the fly. Team USA has since had a chance to find its rhythm and get in the necessary reps to become a true team, rather than just a loose collection of All-Stars.

France will make this game competitive, but Team USA is too talented and too deep to lose to Les Bleus twice in the same tournament. Expect a gold medal and a satisfying measure of revenge for the U.S.

Tokyo 2020 Olympics pick: Team USA