Suns vs. Bucks: The best Chris Paul prop bets for Game 4 of the NBA Finals

We have ourselves a series. After the Milwaukee Bucks got routed in both games in Phoenix, they came with the requisite desperation in Game 3 behind another gigantic Giannis outburst.

The Phoenix Suns, meanwhile, got inconsistent performances from Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Ayton got in early foul trouble and Booker just couldn’t find the range all night. And while Chris Paul was efficient, he still wasn’t able to steal the game for Phoenix. With his running mates flashing their first signs of youthful inexperience on the big stage, what will "CP3" pull out from his bag for Game 4?

The action begins at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC, and we have the three best Chris Paul prop bets below.

OVER/UNDER 21.5 POINTS

Paul has been an effective scorer all throughout his 16-year career. He is an all-time great at getting to wherever he wants on the court and pulling up. When analytics discussions critique the viability of mid-range jump shooting in today's NBA, inevitably the caveat is "unless Chris Paul is taking it."

And a good thing too, because after smoothing over some rough edges in the first two games, Milwaukee is hitting its stride defensively. The Bucks are doing their best to take away the most analytically friendly shots: dunks, layups, corner 3’s, and foul shots.

Of Paul’s 14 shots in Game 3, only two came at the basket. The rest were almost exclusively off-the-dribble jump shots. That’s a tough way to make a living, even for the "Point God." And while Paul scored efficiently in Game 3, Jrue Holiday was tied at the hip to him throughout the game and didn’t allow him to ramp up his attempts even though he was having success with his shots.

Although Paul is an archetypal floor general, if his co-stars show signs of wilting again in Game 4, he’s more than capable of commandeering the offense like he did in his 41-point closeout game against the Clippers. Expect Paul to show some desperation of his own here, and hit the Over.

PICK: OVER 21.5 POINTS

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OVER/UNDER 8.5 ASSISTS

Paul had success attacking Giannis in isolation in Game 3, the same as he did in prior games attacking Lopez. In Game 2, the Bucks got discombobulated by Booker and Paul’s relentless mid-range barrage, Milwaukee’s defenders over-helped, leaving passes to the corner or cutters open. That was found money for Paul, but it wasn’t so easy in Game 3. The Bucks did a much better job staying home on the corners and trusting their bigs to defend in space, which they did admirably.

But he wouldn't be the "Point God" if that small adjustment slowed him.

With his passing in Game 3, Paul worked to create easy interior scoring, something Phoenix desperately needs more of. Five of Paul’s nine assists were to a diving big man in the pick and roll in Game 3. Four of those were to Ayton in the early goings of the game, before the Bahamian big man was relegated to the bench with foul trouble. The way the Bucks are guarding screens, that action should be there a lot for Paul and Ayton in Game 4. 

Ayton is rarely in foul trouble, so I expect Paul to hit the over here on the back of their pick and roll partnership.

PICK: OVER 8.5 ASSISTS

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OVER/UNDER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE

Paul has created less of a percentage of his offense from 3-point range during these playoffs than at any time since the 2012-13 Playoffs per Cleaning the Glass. Only 21% of his shot attempts have been from 3 during this postseason, compared to a whopping 39% during his last playoff run in Houston. In their place, Paul is taking even more mid-range shots as he ages.

While he’s taken a few more 3’s lately, for the playoffs as a whole, he’s averaging only 3.4 attempts from deep per game. Given that the Suns’ role players are best off firing away from deep and that Paul’s own desire is to concede that area in favor of shots from inside the arc, the Under is the play here.

PICK: UNDER 2.5 3-POINT FIELD GOALS MADE