Suns vs. Bucks: NBA Finals Game 3 betting odds, preview, and pick

The 2021 NBA Finals have reached a critical point in the proceedings as the Phoenix Suns take to the road with a commanding 2-0 series lead. Will the Suns continue to dominate at both ends of the court or will the Milwaukee Bucks come roaring back?

The Bucks are favored in Game 3

The Suns were 5.5 point favorites in Game 1 and 4.5 points favorites in Game 2. With this game taking place on the opposite end of the country and the zig-zag theory in full effect, the Milwaukee Bucks are favored by 4. That's nearly a 10-point reversal from the games in Phoenix in which the Suns covered the spread handily. The total is set at 222 with the Suns continuing to show their offensive firepower and Bucks’ star Giannis Antetokounmpo pushing the pace and points total from his side of the court.

Phoenix's efficiency has been critical

As we handicap this matchup, it is plainly evident that the decisive advantage we identified Phoenix had coming into the series is playing out thus far. The Bucks have a 1.9 assist to turnover ratio through two games, while the Suns have a 2.09 assist to turnover ratio, which is right in line with their season average. The Suns have enjoyed a slight field goal shooting advantage as well, which could certainly be a dividend of better passes creating better opportunities.

The Suns' depth has been a difference-maker

The Suns make smart offensive decisions that lead to better looks, and this is also allowing the right player to get the best shot. While the Bucks rely on Antetokounmpo to score the lion’s share of their points, the Suns have more offensive weapons that can take advantage of a mismatch created by good ball movement. Case in point: the Suns have had 11 different players score 10 points or more in a playoff game thus far, while the Bucks have had just eight. Despite injuries to Dario Saric and now Torrey Craig, Phoenix's deep roster has consistently come through in the clutch.

I have watched enough NBA series to know that things can change completely in Game 3. Since 2005, teams down 0-2 and playing Game 3 at home are 80-38-2 ATS in the first half. That's an angle that is hard to play against.

However, just because the Bucks are likely to come out strong in Game 3 doesn't mean they'll also come away with the victory as the Suns are simply a better team at this point in the year. Veteran point guard Chris Paul and head coach Monty Williams have helped create a composed unit that isn't likely to get rattled under the spotlight in Milwaukee.

The Suns have been picking apart the Bucks

The Suns are taking advantage of defensive matchups against players like Brook Lopez, and will continue to do so in Game 3. Even if they fail to take a resounding 3-0 series lead, four points to the better team playing inspired basketball allows for a winning ticket in a losing effort. Let’s take the Suns to go 3-0 ATS and take Phoenix at +4.

NBA Finals Pick: Suns +4