NBA Trends Watch: The Pelicans are flying high on offense
New Orleans Pelicans forward Brandon Ingram dunks the ball against the Utah Jazz. (Photo by Stephen Lew/Icon Sportswire)
March 18th, 2021
We've officially completed the first half of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the playoffs near.
Mini series trends
All season long, we've been following NBA mini series and the bets to look out for in these games. In all mini series combined, the Under is an impressive 16-7-1 in the second game of the mini series. The Under went 2-1 in this past week in such games.
In the 25 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 27-21-1. The team that lost the first game is 16-9 ATS and 6-1 ATS in the last month.
In the 28 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 14-14 ATS, but 1-4 ATS in the past month. The underdog is 28-19 and 6-3 in the past month.
Coach Jenkins was asked about the dynamic of playing the same team back-to-back games. They love it - gives a “mini playoff series” vibe. He wants to see if it’s something that sticks in the NBA
— Grizzly Bear Blues (@bcmGrizzlies) March 4, 2021
Big scores in the Big Easy
The New Orleans Pelicans are on a historic season for Overs and it did not disappoint in the past week. Overs in Pelicans games went 3-1 in the past week, bringing their season total to 29-11. That would net you a profit of $1,690 if you were to wager $100 on every Pelicans Over this season!
There is no scenario where it is a bad idea to bet the Over in a Pelicans game, but some scenarios really stand out. When New Orleans is a home underdog, the Over is 8-1. When they are coming off a win, the Over is 14-3. When the Pelicans have the rest advantage, the Over is 5-1. Get in on those Overs!
These young Pelicans fun asl. (via @nba) pic.twitter.com/nt6ciRpf0h
— SLAM (@SLAMonline) March 17, 2021
Favorites for a reason
The favorites have fought back to just shy of .500 on the season at 293-295-4 ATS. In the past 30 days, favorites are 101-84-1 ATS, and home favorites are 58-45 ATS. In the past seven days, the favorites are 30-27 ATS, and home favorites are 18-14 ATS.
The most consistent teams as favorites are the New York Knicks (9-4 ATS), Phoenix Suns (20-10 ATS), and the Utah Jazz (24-12 ATS). The same three teams are excellent home favorites, but the Boston Celtics (8-5 ATS) and the Golden State Warriors (7-3 ATS) are also respectable.
Rest is for the wicked
Typically, you would expect the team with the rest advantage to have an advantage in the game. However, this statement has not been true in the NBA in 2020-21. In all games this season, the team with no rest is 119-102-3 ATS.
The best teams to look for with no rest are the Los Angeles Clippers (7-0 ATS), Phoenix Suns (7-1 ATS), Utah Jazz (5-1 ATS), Miami Heat (4-1 ATS), Detroit Pistons (4-2 ATS), and Washington Wizards (7-3 ATS). Who needs rest, right?
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