NBA Roundtable: Forecasting Luka Doncic's triple-double total

BetAmerica has teamed up with Covers and Oddschecker to break down the latest news and trends from around the Association. This week NBA columnists Andrew Caley, Sam Farley and Ryan Murphy discuss Kemba Walker's impact in Boston, hidden free agent gems and the Warriors' historic ineptitude.

Carmelo Anthony scored 25 points against the Bulls just two weeks after we unanimously agreed he didn’t belong in the NBA. Has his latest performance changed your mind?

Andrew: Ha. Nope. How many wins do the Blazers have since they signed Melo? One. Against Chicago. Everything we said two weeks ago rings true. Anthony is still a high-volume shooter. He is averaging 16 points per game but is doing it on 16 shots per game. It took him 20 shots to get those 25 points. Twenty! And he is still a sub-par defender at best. He had -19 plus-minus before the Blazers beat down of the Bulls, and Portland is allowing 114 points per game with Anthony in uniform. I’m holding firm on the fade-Melo stance.

Sam: I’m prepared to eat a bit of humble pie here. Carmelo has looked a lot better than we all thought, but it’s still early, and the question will be how long he can keep it up. Let’s just hold off judgement for now and enjoy the ride.

Ryan: I'm not ready to jump on board the Melo bandwagon just yet. Anthony may have dropped 25 on the Bulls, but EVERYONE has been torching Chicago this season. Jim Boylen's squad has surrendered 115 points or more in each of its last three games and ranks in the bottom third in virtually every defensive metric. Melo deserves credit for finally having a good outing, but he has yet to prove he can perform at a high level against a quality team, as evidenced by his negative net ratings against the Pelicans and Bucks. At this point in his career, he'll be lucky to finish the season with a plus-minus rating higher than his new jersey number.

Luka Doncic has already recorded seven triple-doubles in 12 games. What are you setting his over/under at for 2019-20?

Andrew: Luka has been an absolute joy to watch play basketball this season. He is without a doubt a generational talent, and anyone who passed on him in the draft is going to regret it for a long time. A triple-double in seven of Doncic’s first 12 games puts him on a pace for 48 on the season. That would shatter Russell Westbrook’s record from a few seasons ago. The difference between the two is that Doncic playing this way gives the Mavs the best chance to win. This level of play will be hard to keep up, but setting the over/under for triple-doubles this year at 41.5 seems the most fun.

Sam: Let’s do the math here. He is currently on pace for 48 triple-doubles in the regular season, and yeah, I did round up. That simply can’t happen. He’ll have a downturn in form at some point, plus we have to account for a bit of load management and possibly an injury or two. I don’t think he'll break Russ’ record from 2016-17. Let’s set the over/under at 34.5, which is 0.5 more than Westbrook’s total last year. That said, Doncic is breaking records left, right and center, so you never know.

Ryan: I'd like to thank Andrew and Sam for crunching the numbers for me. I have a long history of breaking out into a rash whenever I have to do math. With that said, I do find their projections to be problematic, since they assume Doncic will play all 82 games. That's an issue for two reasons: 1) Doncic missed 10 games last season and 2) he really likes to get in fights. An injury or suspension could dramatically reduce Wonderboy's total and bring his feel-good season to a premature end. Put me down for a solid 32.

Raptors forward Pascal Siakam has increased his scoring average by 8.8 points and has Toronto tied for first place in the Atlantic Division. Could he win the NBA’s Most Improved Player Award two years in a row?

Andrew: Can a player win Most Improved Player and MVP in the same year? That’s just my Raptors bias showing. But in terms of MIP—of course he can. It’s rare to see a guy go out every offseason, identify an area of his game that he struggles in,and work to make it better. He didn’t shoot three-pointers until last year, so we worked on spot up, corner threes. This year he has added a pull-up, long-range shot to his arsenal. But not only is his scoring up, so are his rebounds, assists and player efficiency rating. It could be another big year for Spicy P and the overlooked Raptors.

Sam: He is among the leaders it in the betting, but for me Brandon Ingram is the man to beat. His play has improved so much since his move to New Orleans that he is finally looking like he may realize his potential. I’m also a big fan of Andrew Wiggins for this prize, too, although I’m skeptical he can maintain his current pace. The question we should really be asking is if Siakam should be eligible to win the award for two years in a row. The answer to that is a resounding no. Much like Ben Simmons winning Rookie of the Year in 2018, it just doesn’t feel right. Siakam is a great player and improving so quickly, but he should be nowhere near the conversation, and I’m not just saying that as somebody who wagered on Markelle Fultz.

Ryan: It's a fun storyline, but there's no way the NBA will give consecutive MIP awards to the same player. That became evident in 2017-18, when the league ignored previous recipient Giannis Antetokounmpo, despite the fact that the Greek Freak increased his scoring average by four points and finished sixth in NBA MVP voting. If I were a betting man (and I am!), I'd put my money on Jaylen Brown. The fourth-year guard has posted career highs in points, rebounds, assists and steals and has kept the Celtics afloat following injuries to Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. He's exactly the kind of young, emerging player that voters love to reward.

---

Get in the game with BetAmerica's NBA odds, props and futures!