NBA Rookie of the Year odds update: Giddey is turning heads in OKC

We’re just about three weeks into the 2021-22 NBA season so now is a good time to check in with the race for Rookie of the Year. There has been a ton of movement on the board, as some top picks have started slowly and others are turning heads

Let’s dive in, beginning with those top players whose odds have gotten longer.

LONGER ODDS

CADE CUNNINGHAM (Detroit Pistons)

Cade Cunningham has seen his odds move from +300 before his season started to +450. That’s because he missed all of training camp and preseason with a lingering ankle injury, and has only played in two games to date. And it’s clear that either the ankle is still bothering him, or else he’s out of rhythm, because he has not looked himself in a Detroit Pistons’ uniform.

But even with all those caveats, it has been a grizzly start for Cunningham, including 0-14 from 3, which was supposed to be one of his greatest strengths. It’s as bad a start as you’ll ever see through two games for a No. 1 overall pick.

JALEN GREEN (Houston Rockets)

Jalen Green, No.2 for the Rockets, has had an uneven start. He has had some outstanding performances including his 24 point outing against the Los Angeles Lakers, but overall his efficiency and production has been lower than some expected. His performance alone wouldn’t warrant the 300 to 400 odds drop, if not for the stiff competition he’s facing from players down the board.

Still, he’s flashed the otherworldly athleticism and shooting touch that made him a popular choice, and contrary to notions about the "rookie wall", most players tend to improve over the course of their first year.

SHORTER ODDS

JOSH GIDDEY (Oklahoma City Thunder)

Josh Giddey, the Australian picked No. 6 overall by the Oklahoma City Thunder, is off to a strong start. He was something of a shocking pick at six, with most analysts predicting up until the week of the draft that he would be a borderline lottery pick.

But it’s looking like a great pick by the Thunder, and Giddey’s odds have moved all the way from +2000 to +1000 in just a few short weeks. Giddey has demonstrated his high level of passing craft that made him a lottery prospect, but also more offensive touch, athleticism, and an all-around impactful game. As a wing-sized point guard, the ceiling for Giddey is tantalizing.

EVAN MOBLEY (Cleveland Cavaliers)

Speaking of tantalizing ceilings. Evan Mobley, No. 3 overall pick of the Cleveland Cavaliers, has been outstanding in the early going.

Along with many others, I was skeptical of the fit in Cleveland for Mobley. Long-term, Mobley should be a playmaking 5, but now he was being saddled with a cramped frontcourt featuring not only a traditional center in Jarrett Allen but also Lauri Markkanen, a nominal power forward, playing beside him at small forward.

But what I underestimated was just how stout a defensive pairing Allen and Mobley would immediately make. Mobley has showcased every bit of the feel and fluidity of movement that made him such an intriguing prospect at USC. He just glides around the court, disrupting actions intuitively, and Allen lays back in the paint for anyone who manages to sneak by. Mobley has a long way to go as an offensive player, but his touch and passing are good, so it’s exciting to see how much he’s already put together. 

The NBA GM’s voted Mobley the player in this draft likely to be the best player 5 years from now, but that may have been too conservative. Mobley has shot up from +1000 to +350, and has been NBA-ready from the get-go.

SCOTTIE BARNES (Toronto Raptors)

The biggest riser in the Rookie of the Year race though, despite Evan Mobley's early brilliance, has been Scottie Barnes. Taken with the No. 4 overall pick by Masai Ujiri and the Toronto Raptors, Masai received a fair amount of criticism for choosing Barnes over the seemingly tailor-made Kyle Lowry replacement: Jalen Suggs. At least in the early going, Masai has been vindicated. Not only has Suggs seen his odds fall from +750 to +2000, Barnes has been exceptional.

Barnes has been an outstanding defender and solid playmaker already, both of which came as advertised from his draft profile. The worry with Barnes is that he wouldn’t be able to shoot, and that too has manifested, with just a 22.2% mark from deep. But his athleticism and finishing are much better than expected, and he’s using both to attack the rim relentlessly, notching an efficient line of 18.1 points and 8.9 boards per game.

If you happened to follow our previous advice on Barnes, you’re sitting pretty, as he’s leaped up in the odds from +1200 to +400, trailing only Jalen Green. And that is only due to Green’s reputation. Barnes has emphatically been the better player so far.

But this race is far from over, and as good as Barnes has looked so far, I’d expect Cade Cunningham to make his imprint on the race before all is said and done.