NBA picks: Thunder vs. Rockets, Trail Blazers vs. Lakers

The playoffs in the Western Conference have been more exciting than the Eastern Conference for more than a decade, and this year’s version looks no different.

Even the race to get the No. 8 seed was riveting in the West, and now that all spots are locked in, there are some fascinating and dramatic matchups between teams that have plenty of star power.

Let's take a look at the day's matchups in the NBA playoffs and make some picks.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets

Some luster from this matchup is missing, as Rockets guard Russell Westbrook will miss Game 1 with a quad injury. It is still a regional rivalry with lots of intrigue, however, as Chris Paul will lead the Thunder against his former team, while James Harden will go against the team he began his career with.

The Thunder was not expected to have the success it had this year, but Paul has been the best crunch-time performer in the NBA, and big man Steven Adams is a handful in the paint. Paul is elite at pick-and-roll offense, and without Westbrook to hound him, the Rockets will likely assign Eric Gordon and various other players to the veteran.

The Rockets are a fascinating case study in advanced analytics small ball. They have taken the Warriors blueprint and taken it to the extreme, sacrificing interior defense for shooting and speed. While it has worked more often than it hasn’t, things might not work so well in the playoffs. Robert Covington is shooting just 23.2% from three-point range in the bubble, P.J. Tucker is at 28.6%, Westbrook is out, and Gordon has been injured and was shooting 31.7%.

NBA pick: Thunder -1.5

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Maybe the most exciting matchup of the first round is between the No. 1 and No. 8 seeds in the West, as the red-hot Damian Lillard will take on LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the favorites to win it all.

It isn’t often that a top seed is only a -240 series favorite, but there is a lot of sentiment that things might play out like a college basketball team that “gets hot at the right time.”

Davis has become the best player on the roster, but he has been inconsistent in the bubble and doesn’t have a stellar record in the playoffs. He will also have to contend with one of the emergent stars of the restart, Jusuf Nurkic.

Nurkic has returned from injury with both skill and strength and is scoring 12.5 points per game in the paint, by far the highest number of his career. He has also scooped up 10.3 rebounds per game, and his inside presence compliments fellow big man Hassan Whiteside, but more importantly provides CJ McCollum and Lillard open looks or isolation against defenders.

The Lakers have not been a great team since the restart, and Lillard is clearly a different player right now. The betting public has also historically overvalued the Lakers in this matchup, but Portland is 46-22 against the spread in their last 68 games against the popular team from LA.

I like the balanced Blazers offense to keep this close and cover Game 1.

NBA pick: Trail Blazers +6.5