NBA picks: 76ers vs. Celtics, Mavericks vs. Clippers

The NBA bubble has been fun, leading up to the start of the playoffs, but it felt a bit like an appetizer. Now all 16 teams are locked in and we’re ready for a March Madness-esque, same-site playoff race.

Let’s look at two Game 1 matchups for the first round Monday.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

The Sixers will go the rest of the way without Ben Simmons, while the Celtics should be at full strength, assuming Jayson Tatum’s ankle cooperates. The Celtics are the better team but have struggled recently against the Sixers, with only one win in their last five matchups.

The reason the Celtics have struggled against the Sixers is the presence of Joel Embiid, the enigmatic star center who has all the talent in the world but sometimes makes questionable strategic decisions on the court.

Embiid is a true post player, and arguably the best in the game, with 1.1 points per possession on post-up attempts. The Celtics like to play an undersized roster that provides them switching and offensive efficiency, but it also leaves them vulnerable to size in the paint.

Doubling Embiid when he receives the ball will be important for the Celtics, to force his hand. The Celtics can also give him open space to catch and shoot at the top of the key, which could lead to less efficient attempts from the big man.

The Celtics have restarted in the bubble as one of the most efficient offensive teams. Head coach Brad Stevens clearly used the time off to figure out his best rotations, and young stars Jaylen Brown and Tatum have played excellently.

The Celtics went over the posted total in six of their eight bubble games. The Sixers have struggled to slow teams when Simmons isn’t on the court, and Embiid prefers to sink into the paint, rather than challenge the three-point line off the pick and roll, which will be disastrous against all of the Celtics shooters.

NBA pick: Celtics -5.5

Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers appear poised for an inevitable matchup against the Lakers in the Western Conference, but their first step will be against the Mavericks. This will be an easy task for the Clippers, who have defeated the Mavs in four straight games.

The Mavs have their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, but beyond those two, they are lacking quality depth, and the Clippers have plenty. Tim Hardaway Jr. has enough NBA experience and Seth Curry is an efficient three-pointer shooter, but both are more catch-and-shoot types and liabilities on defense.

Make no mistake. This Mavs team runs through Doncic. He has averaged 28.8 points per game and 8.8 assists this season, but his importance is not lost on the Clippers, either, who have two of the best defensive wings in the game — Paul George and Kawhi Leonard.

While Clippers head coach Doc Rivers would likely prefer to assign Patrick Beverley or a traditional point guard to Doncic, Leonard and George have both shown a willingness to step in and take a non-traditional assignment over the years.

The Clippers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games and 4-0 ATS in their last four against the Mavs. Leonard and George have been able to rest up and are entering the playoffs healthy.

The Clippers are my pick to win the championship this season, and it all starts with a resounding victory in Game 1.

NBA pick: Clippers -6