NBA notebook: How do the Suns match up against the Bucks and Hawks?

The Phoenix Suns are headed to their first NBA Finals in almost 30 years. Their path to get there took them through the Lakers, Nuggets, and Clippers. They went through regular-season MVPs and all-time greats, and through teams that like to pound the rock inside and those that prefer to dominate from the perimeter.

Against all challengers, they prevailed.

But one opponent remains, and with only five games played in the Eastern Conference Finals and many lingering health questions, we won’t know who for a little while. Let’s take a look at what this run has taught us about the Phoenix Suns and how they would match up against both of their potential NBA Finals opponents.

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The Suns' principles

The Suns, as a unit, are a mix of new-school and traditional theories of NBA basketball. They seldom play without a traditional big, and they have multiple stars who make mid-range their home.

But they also embrace "Moreyball" principles that emphasize shooting three and attacking in transition. They’re capable of switching, and they have a plethora of long, Swiss Army Knife wings who fill out the rotation around their stars.

Against the Clippers, they faltered against the small-ball, switch-everything group built around Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris. They played Ivica Zubac groups mostly even and were only temporarily rebuffed by the Clippers zone. But they absolutely picked apart any unit that had DeMarcus Cousins, a more ground-bound big, on the court.

So how does that match up against this version of the Bucks and the Hawks? Let’s dive in.

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Phoenix will expose Milwaukee's limitations

Although the team has released nothing official, reporting by The Athletic paints a grim picture about Giannis Antetokounmpo’s immediate future. In essence, the chances that he returns during these playoffs are vanishingly small. The risk of re-injury is simply too high.

The Bucks without Antetokounmpo are almost a purely conceptual team. Though they looked comfortable in Game 5 against Atlanta, it would still be breaking new ground. Antetokounmpo is the bedrock of their offense and defense and one who rarely misses time. 

The Bucks dominate because they get to the foul line and own the paint, almost all of which is Antetokounmpo. That interior pressure creates open threes in the corners and on the wing. Without Antetokounmpo, they’ll ask Brook Lopez to do his best to replicate that gravity inside.

They’re also the most frequent transition attacking team in the NBA and primarily do that off defensive rebounds, not steals. That will be impossible to replicate without the Greek Freak.

On defense, the Bucks deny the rim at all costs and concede mid-range shots and above-the-break threes more than any other team. They also limit opponents in transition. Antetokounmpo covers a lot of ground as a help defender that makes an otherwise exploitable scheme nigh impregnable.

The Suns are almost built in a lab to take advantage of the Bucks’ liabilities without Antetokounmpo. Their best players exploit the spaces on the court that Milwaukee concedes, so Devin Booker and Chris Paul would have ample opportunity to attack from mid-range and from above the break. 

The Suns defense ranked ninth in denying three-point attempts during the regular season, which will be the primary offensive focus for the Bucks. Phoenix was also the No. 1 team in the NBA at limiting opponent transition opportunities.

While Lopez has been a devastating offensive threat throughout his career, it wasn’t long ago that we saw Deandre Ayton play regular-season MVP Nikola Jokic to a virtual draw. That matchup will not be a significant advantage for the Bucks, either.

It's possible Milwaukee will mix up its defensive coverage and switch to slow the Suns, but Phoenix just beat a team that was much more suited to that particular strategy.

If the Bucks manage to outlast Atlanta, they are in for a rude awakening in the NBA Finals.

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The Hawks have a chance

The injuries to Atlanta are not as clear-cut as they are for Milwaukee.

While Trae Young has missed the last two games against the Bucks, a bone bruise has such a variable outcome and there remains hope he could return in time for a Finals matchup. For purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that Young will play at least part of the series at near-normal health. If he does not, the Suns will crush the Hawks.

Structurally, the Hawks and Suns are similar. They both depend on dynamic guard play, athletic and more traditional rim-running centers, and complimentary wings who defend and shoot.

Assuming Young isn’t too limited, he can create the same issues for the Suns defense that he has for the Knicks, Sixers, and Bucks. Paul is a great defender, but he is older and slower than you need to defend Young. The Suns don’t have the ideal, athletic small guard to fight through the ball screens that Young works through. The floater will be there for Young, and the Hawks could even play John Collins at center to pull Ayton farther away from the basket.

The Hawks will also rely on  Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter, and Bogdan Bogdanovic. This trio is good enough not to be exploited by any wing on the Suns but is more dynamic with the ball than Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, or Jae Crowder. If the Hawks have a chance, it will be to win the battle of the wings.

Phoenix is going to have a significant advantage at guard, and the Hawks will struggle to defend Paul. While Kris Dunn has been exhumed recently, he hasn’t made an impact, and trusting a second-year player like Cam Reddish to stop Booker is asking a lot.

If Young plays and the Atlanta wings show out, there is a viable path to a Hawks championship, but Phoenix should be a heavy favorite.

All stats unless otherwise stated per Cleaning the Glass.