NBA betting trends: Unders and underdogs
Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (left) and Los Angeles Lakers guard LeBron James jockey for position. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire)
January 21st, 2021
We've completed a month of the NBA season and now have a strong set of data to determine trends.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine which trends you should take advantage of for the 2020-2021 NBA season.
Underdogs still have the advantage
Each week, we talk about how underdogs are off to a hot start, and while it is regressing back to the mean, underdogs are still 114-94-1 ATS. Hundred-dollar bets on all underdogs against the spread would net you a $1,060 profit.
The best teams in the league against the spread as underdogs include the Boston Celtics (4-2), San Antonio Spurs (6-3), Chicago Bulls (10-3), Washington Wizards (5-2), Charlotte Hornets (7-3), and Phoenix Suns (3-1).
Road Bulls
Road teams in the NBA are 111-97-1 ATS. Some of the best ATS teams on the road include the Chicago Bulls (7-2), Oklahoma City Thunder (5-2), Memphis Grizzlies (4-1), Washington Wizards (4-1), and Los Angeles Clippers (5-2).
It is even better when the road team is an underdog. These teams are 69-52-1 ATS, a solid trend for such a large sample size. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog and will likely get two more opportunities in that category in the next week.
That's nasty, Coby 🔥
— SLAM (@SLAMonline) January 16, 2021
(via @chicagobulls) pic.twitter.com/OLjftbKA4E
Pandemic 'mini-series'
Because of COVID-19 protocols, the schedule makers cut down the need for excess travel this season, which created several “mini-series," where teams play on consecutive nights or twice in three nights.
In the 10 mini-series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 15-5 and the team that lost the first game against the spread is 8-2 ATS in the second. The Los Angeles Lakers are 6-0 straight-up in mini-series games.
Watching all the Lakers games I’ve missed. One of my favorite sequences: LeBron gets hooked by Harden, so next play he rebounds miss, fires Pass of the Year candidate left-handed to KCP, who pissed off a Rocket on the bench. pic.twitter.com/dIOso02w1M
— Got ‘Em (@GotEm_Coach) January 16, 2021
In the 12 mini-series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 8-4 ATS in the second game. The underdog is 14-10 ATS in these mini-series games.
Unders still dominate
Unders are 111-97 overall and 109-87 in non-overtime games. The total has gone Under in nine of the last 10 games the Lakers have played on the road. The total has gone Under in 10 of the last 12 games the New York Knicks have played. The total has gone Under in 11 of the 14 games played by the Atlanta Hawks.
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