Mavericks vs. Bulls: The best player prop bets for Nov. 10

The Dallas Mavericks and Chicago Bulls face off tonight, with both teams boasting identical 7-3 records through their first 10 games.

The Bulls are in the middle of a hellish part of their schedule where they play 12 of 13 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. Their one game "reprieve" comes against the 9-1 Golden State Warriors. The Mavericks, meanwhile, haven’t been pretty, but a 7-3 start for this group is solid given their various injury woes.

Mavericks vs. Bulls tips off at 8:00 p.m. ET on League Pass, and we have the three best player props bets below.

LUKA DONCIC OVER/UNDER 26.5 POINTS

Doncic was the MVP betting favorite entering the season, but so far he has not had the season many had hoped for. Luka has been known as a slow starter (relative to his superstar standards), and clearly plays himself into game shape over the course of the season.

He’s also been hit hard by the new officiating changes, seeing a drop of 2.0 free throw attempts per game. What’s curious though is that he already suffered a similar drop between his second and third seasons, and now he’s fallen all the way from 9.2 free throws a game in his second year to 5.1 this season.

This also tracks with Doncic's shot profile, as he’s seen a precipitous drop in his shots at the rim this year. He’s currently only taking 14% of his shots at the rim, which is in the 11th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass. Luka is still pretty efficient because he’s scoring on 50% of his midrange shots overall. But it’s a difficult way to make a living, and may not be sustainable offense for Doncic going forward. Part of this is that Jason Kidd is having Doncic post up more than ever before - he’s currently averaging the sixth most post up attempts per game, but scoring a miserable .71 points per possession on them.

The Bulls have a variety of defenders they can use to wear Doncic down over the course of the game, and with an offense seemingly pushing him to take harder and harder shots, the Under is the play here.

PICK: UNDER 26.5 POINTS (-113)

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DEMAR DEROZAN OVER/UNDER 23.5 POINTS

DeMar DeRozan has been one of the NBA’s best players this year, and seems destined to rejoin the All-Star team after a few years left out in the wilderness. The funny thing is, there’s nothing particularly new or different about the way that DeRozan is playing this season, he just has better surrounding talent and he’s playing on a bigger stage. Yes, he’s taking slightly more 3s, but as usual, he leads the NBA in midrange attempts, where he generates 64% of all his shots.

But in a season marked league-wide by falling offense, particularly among many of the league's star players, staying stable is an improvement relative to everyone else. Despite being one of the NBA’s craftiest foul drawers, DeRozan and his patented pump-fake has not seen reduced effectiveness from the new rules. In fact, DeMar has seen a slight uptick in his free throw attempts from 7.2 to 7.9 per game, an absolutely elite number. And he’s been even better lately, scoring 31.8 points per game over his last five outings.

With surrounding talent to take the pressure off, and the green light from Billy Donovan just to be himself, DeRozan is thriving as a Chicago Bull.

PICK: OVER 23.5 POINTS (+100)

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NIKOLA VUCEVIC OVER/UNDER 1.5 3-POINTERS MADE

Nikola Vucevic is having a nightmare season. He’s shooting 37.8% from the field and an ice-cold 26.2% from 3. For a big man that’s supposed to make his living on offense, that is disastrous. He’s currently in the fourth percentile on points per shot attempt, per Cleaning the Glass.

It’s clearly in his head at this point, and the Chicago crowd groans with every miss at home. He’s only made more than one 3-pointer in two games this year, which is many games as he’s made none. Until there’s good reason to do otherwise, bet the Under.

PICK: UNDER 1.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+110)