How important is home-court advantage in the NBA?

When the NBA resumes play in Orlando on July 30, the 22 teams participating will experience an unprecedented circumstance as all will be competing on a practically even playing field.

As a precaution during the COVID-19 pandemic, the league chose to relocate to the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Florida for the summer to create a "bubble" for players, coaches and team staff. All matchups will be played inside the Arena, Field House, and Visa Athletic Center — three indoor venues on the Wide World of Sports campus — and no fans are permitted to attend games.

Thus, for the first time in league history, the NBA will decide its champion without any type of home-court advantage. Even the Magic, who call Orlando home, will be playing 20 minutes away from the friendly confines of the Amway Center.

Here we look into how important that advantage is to some teams, and which ones might perform best while playing in these empty, unfamiliar arenas.

The value of home-court advantage

Based on Jeff Sagarin’s statistical model, home-court advantage in the NBA is worth around 2.3 points per game. Therefore, in a game between two otherwise evenly matched teams, the squad playing on its home court would be favored to win, on average, by 2.3 points.

This figure can vary across the league. For instance, the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets historically possess greater home-court advantage, due to a particular factor — high altitude.

These two teams are accustomed to their unique home environment, but when visiting teams from low-elevation areas stop in Salt Lake City or Denver, opposing players often find it more difficult to breathe in the high altitude and can become easily winded running up and down the court.

That’s one of the big reasons why Denver has won 68.4% of its games at home by an average margin of victory of 5.7 points since 2003.

Crowd support, referee bias, which can be influenced by fan noise, and the comfort of playing in your hometown, which eliminates the mental strain of travel, all play into home-court advantage, as well.

In Orlando this summer, the altitude won’t affect the players, fans won’t be there to potentially shake the officials, and no one will feel "at home" in the strange bubble the NBA has created.

This season, no team played better at home than the Philadelphia 76ers. Up to the moment the NBA suspended play in mid-March, the Sixers owned a 29-2 record at home (93.5% win percentage) and won by an average of 10.4 points.

For comparison, Philly was just 10-24 on the road, good for a 29.4% win percentage. They also lost by an average of 5.3 points per game.  

Owner of the league’s best record, the Bucks won by the largest average margin of victory at home (14.7) this season, but played almost as well on the road.

Milwaukee held the second-best away record at 24-9 (72.7%), and won by an average margin of eight points.

Only the Lakers performed better on the road, with a 26-6 record (81.2%).

Miami is another team that will miss home-court advantage. Currently fourth in the Eastern Conference with a 41-24 record, the Heat won more than 84% of their home games, but just 42.4% of road games.

The Portland Trail Blazers won 56.2% of home games and only 32.4% on the road. San Antonio secured a victory 53.3% of the time at AT&T Center, and 31.2% of the time on a different court.

The Washington Wizards, a team that barely earned an invite to Orlando, won exactly half of their games at home, which is an improvement compared to their 25% road win percentage.

Who will hold the advantage in Orlando?

The Orlando situation is already so unique, and it continues to change each day, with players either testing positive for COVID-19 or choosing to sit out the NBA restart, like Lakers guard Avery Bradley did.

Teams will be in completely unfamiliar territory in Florida, and some of them may be short-handed on top of that.

As time goes on, some teams may adapt better than others, but based on who played the best both at home and away, the Bucks, Lakers, Raptors, and Celtics may hold the greatest advantage in an environment where it’s tough to find any at the moment.

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