Heat vs. Bucks: NBA Playoffs first round series preview

The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks are set to clash on Saturday, May 22, and it's shaping up to be the most anticipated first round matchup of the 2021 NBA Playoffs.

Let’s take a deep dive into this series and predict who will be the last team standing.

Heat looking for a repeat from the Bubble

The Miami Heat faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the 2020 Eastern Conference semifinals and turned in an excellent performance, defeating the top-seeded Bucks in five games. The Heat would love to replicate that result, this time in the first round.

Overall, the Heat had a disappointing season after reaching the NBA Finals last year. They finished with a 40-32 record, and had an expected win/loss of 36-36, which was 16th in the league. The Heat added Trevor Ariza and Victor Oladipo in the middle of the season to help turn things around, but only got four games out of Oladipo before he was forced out with a season-ending injury.

Although the Heat occasionally struggled on offense, they excelled at the other end of the court. They ranked third in turnover percentage and seventh in defensive rating. They will need to bring their A+ defense to take down the Bucks again in a seven-game series.

Bucks are on a mission

The Bucks are out for revenge, and not only against the Heat. Last season was supposed to be the year they finally won a title, but they were dethroned early, and now are being overlooked as a middle of the road team.

Milwaukee finished the season at 46-26 and went 11-4 over its last 15 games. The Bucks had an expected win/loss of 48-24, which ranked fifth in the league. They went 2-1 in their regular season series with the Heat.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is not in the MVP conversation, but his numbers can't be ignored. The "Greek Freak" averaged 28.1 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.2 blocks per game in 2020-21, and shot 56.9% from the field. He also attempted the most free throws in the league, which shows his determination to get to the rim and wreak havoc inside.

Heat vs. Bucks X-Factors

The big x-factor for the Heat is their lineup of Bam Adebayo, Trevor Ariza, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Duncan Robinson. It is not a lineup that sees a ton of minutes, but it is extremely effective. It has a combined +/- of +40.2 points per 100 possessions. It also nets +24.8 assists per 100 possessions. That is the type of production that can led to an upset.

The big x-factor for the Bucks is the defensive play of Jrue Holiday. Milwaukee knows what it is getting from Holiday on the offensive end, but when he plays elite defense, the Bucks are almost unbeatable. In the 41 wins that Holiday played in, he averaged 1.7 steals per game and had a defensive rating of 106. In the 18 losses he played in, he only averaged 1.4 steals per game and had a defensive rating of 124.

Heat vs. Bucks series prediction

This is going to be an exciting series, and I expect both teams to have their highs and lows throughout. If the Heat can find that right lineup and dominate defensively with good three point shooting, they can pull off another deep postseason run. If the Bucks can find some extra scoring behind their top three stars, they will be extremely tough to beat in a seven-game series.

Ultimately, I like the Bucks to exact some revenge and put the rest of the East on notice that they are back. I see Milwaukee winning this series in six games.

Series prediction: Bucks in 6