Heat vs. 76ers: The best player prop bets for Dec. 15

It’s the first matchup of the season between the visiting Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers. Joel Embiid and Seth Curry are questionable, while Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both out.

Heat vs. 76ers tips off at 7:00 p.m. ET on League Pass, and we have the three best player prop bets below.

KYLE LOWRY OVER/UNDER 8.5 ASSISTS

One of the great joys of this season has been watching another fanbase discover the sublime nature of Kyle Lowry’s play. He was an unsung hero outside of Toronto for many years, often wrongly blamed for the Raptors' playoff shortcomings, all the while continuing to make winning play after winning play.

That pattern has continued in South Beach, except with more notoriety. Lowry has been a core piece of the 16-12 Miami Heat’s success, particularly as an already top-heavy team continues to miss Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. He’s the engine that makes Miami go on offense, and he's sporting the highest assist-to-usage percentage of his career (1.50)

And he’s getting Miami the right shots. When Lowry is in the game, the Heat get a much higher portion of their shots from deep and at the rim. He also gets the Heat going in transition more, giving Miami a pace they were desperately missing.

With Butler and Bam both out for tonight’s game, the reins of the offense once more fall to Lowry, and he’s proven to be a capable floor general in their absence, averaging 9.4 assists in his past five games.

PICK: OVER 8.5 ASSISTS (-113)

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KYLE LOWRY OVER/UNDER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE

In addition to his work this season as the Heat’s leading assist man, Lowry has continued to shoulder his share of the offense. As Lowry ages, that continues to mean taking a larger portion of his shots from deep. Lowry is taking just 17% of his shots at the rim this season, a career-low, and most of those attempts have instead become 3-pointers. He’s struggled with his shot though, and he’s hit only 33.5% from distance so far.

But that’s been trending in the right direction recently, as Lowry has hit right about his career mark (36.8%) over his last 10 games. Lowry has also hit four or more 3s in four of his last six games. The same theory applies here as it did with the prior bet, with Lowry as the No. 1 option, his high volume of attempts should give him a great shot to hit the Over here.

PICK: OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+105)

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PJ TUCKER OVER/UNDER 8.5 POINTS

PJ Tucker has long been known as a defensive stalwart, but there have been questions about his offensive decline in recent years. Tucker was glued exclusively to the corner on offense in Houston, and that pattern continued in his brief tenure in Milwaukee. And when the shots from distance weren’t falling, he became a complete liability on offense. That’s partly why, even after Tucker had an outstanding playoffs to help the Milwaukee Bucks to their first title in 50 years, they felt comfortable letting him walk.

They might come to regret that decision. In Miami, Erik Spoelstra has Tucker playing like a new man. No longer tied to the corner on every possession, Tucker has been given room to rediscover his offensive game inside the arc, and it’s paying dividends early. 72% of all Tucker’s shots last season were 3-pointers, a majority of which were from the corners. That mark is down to just 47% this year, the lowest since 2016-17. 

And as a result of becoming less of a one-trick point, Tucker is scoring more efficiently than at any prior point in his career. He’s sporting a 61% eFG%, mostly by adding duck-ins and short post moves around the basket. 7.4 points per game might not sound like much, but it’s double his output last year, and has been steadily growing, peaking with a 23 point game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday. With the Heat still missing so many bodies, expect Miami to continue empowering Tucker to score.

PICK: OVER 8.5 POINTS (-113)