Clippers vs. Mavericks: The best player prop bets for Game 3

Friday’s Game 3 between the Dallas Mavericks and the visiting Los Angeles Clippers is a seismic event, as the Mavs aim to prove they are worthy of contender status and the Clippers strive to avoid the abject embarrassment that would follow going down 0-3 in the first round.

So, will the Clippers do something they haven’t done to date, and show mental fortitude in a high-pressure environment? Which players can we expect to come through for each side?

Game 3 begins at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. We have the top three player props picks for tonight's action below.

LUKA DONCIC OVER/UNDER 47.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, and ASSISTS  

The Clippers deliberately threw games against the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder down the stretch of the regular season to avoid the Lakers' side of the playoff bracket. Dodging the Lakers by out-tanking the two worst teams in the NBA has had karmic consequences, and those consequences have taken the form of Slovenian superstar Luka Doncic.

Doncic received his share of criticism this year for his slow start. The two-time All-Star admitted to being caught off guard by the quick turnaround after the bubble, and clearly went into training camp out of shape. Then the Mavericks got hammered by COVID-19 and injuries, and many fans stopped paying attention to the fact that Doncic had taken yet another massive leap forward to becoming an all-time great.

The NBA Playoffs are where stars are born, and if anyone wasn't convinced Doncic arrived last year in the bubble, his stardom has become undeniable this year.

Nothing the Clippers have done has managed to slow Luka down. This season Doncic has diversified his post game to the point where it is nearly automatic if he has the ball with two feet in the paint against a smaller defender. And it is also nearly impossible to stop him from getting there. Doncic got so good at this that during the regular season, he averaged more points than Joel Embiid on a points-per-possession basis from the post.

Now, every jumper taken by Joel Embiid is in some small way a win for the defense. Or better yet, it allows opposing teams to bring help and make him a passer. But either can spell death when guarding Doncic, who is already one of the top five playmakers in the NBA. He relentlessly hunts advantageous switches and punished the Clippers, whether it was Ivica Zubac or Patrick Beverley who found themselves trapped on an island.

All this even though the Clippers theoretically have two of the NBA’s premier wing defenders. Doncic is a cheat code. He is going to continue to dominate the Clippers, and everyone else, for years to come.

PICK: OVER 47.5  POINTS, REBOUNDS & ASSISTS (-113)

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KAWHI Leonard OVER/UNDER 30.5 POINTS

For all the talk of Doncic’s dominance, Kawhi Leonard actually had the better offensive outing. While he couldn’t slow Luka down, Kawhi certainly went out swinging, adding 41 points on 14-21 from the field. At times he looked like the terminator Kawhi from the Toronto Raptors' magical title season.

With the season on the line, Leonard will once again have the ball in his hands working one on one for long stretches, and Maxi Kleber has not been able to bother him one bit.

PICK: OVER 30.5 POINTS (-113)

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TIM HARDAWAY JR. OVER/UNDER 18.5 POINTS

In the regular season, Tim Hardaway Jr. averaged 18.0 points per game against the Clippers through three games. That might tempt one to think that this line is pretty well set until you dig a little deeper. Hardaway shot a ridiculous 53% from the field and 50% from deep in those contests, and did all that damage in just under 30 minutes per game. In the playoffs, his minutes have jumped to over 35 minutes - and a whopping 24.5 points on 63% from the field and 64.7% from 3.

Hardaway is a rhythm player, and he is in one hell of a groove against this team. Nothing the Clippers have done all season has forced him into a difficult shot, and as L.A. desperately tries to mix up its coverages to slow down Doncic, Hardaway will be wide open, on the right wing, bombing away with impunity.

The few times the Clippers tried doubling Doncic in Game 2 nearly always lead to a wide open shot for Hardaway, and I expect him to continue to feast tonight.

PICK: OVER 18.5 POINTS (-113)