Chicago Bulls Offseason in Review: Ball and DeRozan join LaVine in loaded backcourt

The Chicago Bulls had one of the most fascinating offseasons in the entire NBA. General Manager Artūras Karnišovas continued his strategy from last season, going all-in around Zach LaVine, even at the cost of future flexibility. But where did it get them in the grand scheme of things? And was the juice worth the squeeze? Let’s take a look at their offseason moves.

LONZO BALL PUSHING THE PACE

When the moratorium ended, the Bulls were the first team on the board with the sign-and-trade of Lonzo Ball. In exchange for Ball, the Bulls sent Garrett Temple, Tomas Satoransky, and a second-round pick to the New Orleans Pelicans. They signed Ball to a four-year deal worth $80 million (worth up to $85 million with unlikely bonuses) with a fourth-year player option.

That’s a fine deal for Ball, and the Bulls didn’t give up much in longterm value to ward off other bidders. Ball is a divisive player, but at less than $20 million average annually until his option year, it’s hard to argue with the value play. Ball gives the Bulls some much-needed team defense on the wing as well as a level of playmaking they were sorely lacking. And his perimeter shooting has improved over the last two seasons, where he has shot a notch above 37% from deep on a high volume.

Ball will also be key in another area. The Bulls created the fourth-fewest transition opportunities in the entire NBA last year. In other words, they were slow. Transition offense is typically the most efficient play in the NBA, and Lonzo is a dynamic transition passer and player who will immediately supercharge Chicago’s transition efforts.

THE CARUSHOW JOINS CHICAGO

The next deal the Bulls announced was the surprise signing of Alex Caruso to a four-year deal worth up to $37 million, with the fourth year lightly guaranteed for $3 million.

Caruso's main virtue is his strength as a point of attack defender. During his tenure there, he was a key cog in the Lakers championship-caliber defense and adds some much-needed help on that end for the Bulls. He’s also a strong team defender who will help cover Nikola Vucevic’s deficiencies as a rim deterrent.

And importantly, given the roster he’s joining, he doesn’t need the ball. Caruso shot 40% from deep last year, making him a great off-ball threat. Still, it was on a low volume, and playoff defenses will challenge him to make those shots when it really counts.

THE DEROZAN DECISION

Up until this point, the Bulls' offseason was more or less universally praised. But the sign and trade of DeMar DeRozan from the San Antonio Spurs on a three-year deal worth $85 million was, shall we say, polarizing. In addition to the contract, the Bulls sent out Thaddeus Young, Al-Farouq Aminu, a first-round pick, and two additional second-round picks. Where to begin?

The trade itself is rough from a value standpoint. Thad Young, though 33, was a valuable part of the Bulls rotation last year, and one of their few players that had true defensive versatility. And It seems clear that getting off of Aminu’s contract was part of the reason for the sheer volume of pick capital that went back to the Spurs. Aminu, readers will remember, came over in the Nikola Vucevic deal that already cost the Bulls two future-firsts. 

In short, Chicago gave up a ton of future picks for the right to sign DeMar DeRozan to a contract well exceeding his apparent market value. Not good.

In evaluating the move purely on offensive fit mind you, there is some intrigue here. The Bulls didn’t have a great half-court initiator outside of LaVine, so adding DeRozan takes pressure off of him and is insurance against the kind of absence that torpedoed their playoff hopes last season.

And to his credit, DeRozan became a truly dynamic offensive playmaker during his last two seasons in San Antonio, and last year averaged 6.9 assists per game. He’s always going to have incredible shotmaking craft in the midrange too. 

But his complete inability to shoot 3’s puts a lot of pressure on Vucevic and the other guards to stretch the floor. And critically, DeRozan has to be hidden on defense because he is so detrimental on that end, and the remaining hiding spaces on the Bulls roster are few and far between.

WAS IT WORTH IT?

The guiding philosophy in Chicago appears to have been two-fold: 1) Make the playoffs this season and 2) Convince LaVine to re-sign. Inarguably they made steady progress towards the former. They’re deeper, they’ve covered up major roster holes, and they have multiple weapons that should allow them to score against just about anybody on a given night. 

Their defensive fit, on the other hand, is miserable. Their best scoring lineups will include all of LaVine, Vucevic, and DeRozan - but that group may spontaneously burst into flames when faced with defending a real offense. And their offensive talent is not so overwhelming that they are automatically catapulted into the top six of the East. The Nets, Bucks, Heat, and Sixers are all a notch above. And the Bulls are not clearly better than the Hawks, Knicks, or Celtics, so they’ll be in the mud fighting to avoid the Play-In Tournament with a number of other hopefuls.

The second element of their moves was to do whatever they could to retain Zach LaVine. Whether they achieved that or not is more ambiguous. Chicago could have used cap space to renegotiate and extend LaVine off his current deal, bringing him up to a maximum contract and adding up to four years on the end of it.

Whether they offered this is anybody's guess, but LaVine's recent comments that he just wants his "respect" in a future deal didn't do anything to allay fears that he might walk after this season. Instead, they’re hoping that by improving the team and competing, LaVine won’t go looking for opportunity elsewhere. For the cost they’ve paid in future flexibility, I don’t think they’ve done enough to ensure LaVine stays.

WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE CHICAGO?

The Bulls are all-in. The question is no longer whether they should be or not because there is no backing out now. The real question is how far can this roster take them?

The Bulls championship odds took a justifiable jump from +15000 on Aug. 1 to where they are now at +8000, but there just isn’t value in betting this team to win it all. They don’t have the upside equivalent to say the Hawks last year, and almost every team in the East has improved. If anything, I would actually find it tempting to bet against the Bulls making the playoffs (+105) because their disaster potential is fairly high and their ceiling is relatively low.

LaVine is in his prime, but on an expiring deal, and DeRozan and Vucevic are both on the wrong side of 30. Their best shot at winning big will come this season, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the franchise. Losing LaVine after mortgaging the future would be disastrous.

But LaVine is not a tier-one superstar, so this isn’t equivalent to going for it with Giannis Antetokounmpo or Steph Curry on the roster. The Bulls have a clear ceiling, and that is likely short of a conference finals appearance. For a franchise that has been chasing relevance since The Last Dance, that might be enough, but for Bulls fans hoping for a return to the glory of the Jordan era, they’ll have to keep waiting.