UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill odds and preview

Though COVID-19 claimed the original main event, the ladies of the strawweight division take center stage at UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Sept. 12 when Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill face off. BetAmerica has the call for the carnage in the cage.

Hill's power has been overstated

A lot has been said about Angela Hill’s power, enough to make her a slight favorite going into this bout, but Hill’s overall body of work does not lend enough evidence to establish her as a vicious striker. She did outwork Claudia Gadelha in her last fight out, only to lose a questionable decision, but Hill possesses a versatile stand up game and isn’t afraid to go into the meat grinder to do her work.

Waterson's ground game is legit

Hill may be up and coming, but Waterson is on the doorstep of the division elites. While she’s lost her last two against the very best of the division, she looked respectable in defeat. Whereas Hill is a traditional striker, Waterson is more of a ground specialist with nearly half of her wins coming by submission. Waterson is experienced, well-rounded, and her ground game is strong enough to give Hill something to worry about.

Hill hasn’t shown herself as capable on the ground as she is on her feet. Should Waterson close the distance between them, she can score takedowns and stay busy enough to rack up points on the scorecards and smother Hill’s offense. We’ve seen Waterson hold her own against better opposition than Hill, who is one-dimensional striker that is vulnerable and easy to read, and this bout should proceed at a pace conducive to her grappling talents.

Expect UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill to go the distance

That’s not to say that Hill can’t force her way to victory, but these two don’t have the kind of stopping power or submission skills that indicate this could be an early night in the octagon. Both of them are going to be content for a measured contest, with Hill looking for a big shot and Waterson shooting in to test her opponent’s takedown defense. There might be long stretches of minimal action, but Waterson should control the action throughout.

At the end of the night, expect the small hype train for Hill to get derailed by Waterson. It won’t be pretty, but Waterson outworking Hill to win a decision is the call.

MMA pick: Waterson (+105)