UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley odds and preview

If you mix a shot of redemption with a healthy serving of bad blood, you’ll get the main event of UFC Fight Night — Colby Covington versus Tyron Woodley.

These two do not like each other, and with the winner expected to be on the short list for another welterweight title shot, this is going to get nasty.

BetAmerica has betting odds and the pick for Covington vs. Woodley on Saturday, Sept. 19 from UFC Apex.

Woodley looked awful against Burns

Time hasn’t been kind to Woodley.

After mutual opponent Kamaru Usman ended his three-year reign as champ, Woodley looked awful in a loss to Gilbert Burns in his last fight.

Woodley also matches up poorly against Covington. Woodley’s strong wrestling background won’t do him much good, and his striking is predictable and ordinary compared to Covington’s.

Striking might be his only way out, and he could at least slow Covington down and outwork him in clinches.

To better his chances, Woodley is working with Covington’s former training partner, Jorge Masvidal, to boost his stand-up game. Whether Woodley can add another dimension to his game at 38 is difficult to say, but he doesn’t have much other choice.

Covington is a deserving favorite

Covington’s impeccable conditioning and solid chin, coupled with his strong wrestling background, has made him a big favorite. Despite the brutal nature of his loss against Usman, Covington is the fresher fighter closer to his prime.

To protect his recently repaired jaw, Covington will use his height advantage and footwork to stay away from Woodley's big shots.

Covington could run away with this fight if Woodley’s offense sputters early. His versatility and conditioning should be enough to see Woodley’s telegraphed power shots coming a mile away.

Woodley would be nuts to try to overpower Covington on the ground. Unless Woodley hits pay dirt with a shot out of nowhere, or if Covington’s jaw remains compromised, this might be an awkward, stagnant fight.

Expect Covington to dominate Woodley

Expect Covington to keep Woodley out with his varied striking and movement. Covington will get the better of Woodley in exchanges and will grow in confidence as the rounds progress.

Once Woodley realizes he can’t handle the stand-up, he’ll unsuccessfully try to take Covington down and eat plenty of leather in the process.

Covington will bust Woodley up but take the win by way of a dominant decision.

MMA free pick: Covington (-355)