Trout favored to win AL MVP, but don't overlook Chapman
Oakland Athletics third baseman Matt Chapman sends a ball deep. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)
March 5th, 2020
Mike Trout missed 28 games in 2019, but he still managed to win a third American League Most Valuable Player Award on the strength of 45 home runs and 104 RBIs. The Angels center fielder also led the AL in OPS (1.083) for a third straight season.
Trout is a prohibitive favorite (+125) to be voted MVP in 2020. We’ll handicap his chances, along with those of his competition, to determine if there is a longshot worth wagering on in this market, or if bettors should eat the chalk.
Odds to win the AL MVP Award
| Player | AL MVP Odds |
|---|
Mike Trout | +125 |
Aaron Judge | +1100 |
Francisco Lindor | +1400 |
Gleyber Torres | +1400 |
Alex Bregman | +1700 |
Trout faces plenty of competition on his own team
There is very little to dislike about Trout, other than his durability. The main reason he didn’t win MVP in 2017 and 2018 is that he missed 60 games over those two years. That is not welcome news for those looking to wager on him at these odds before the season begins.
There is also a chance free agent signing Anthony Rendon (+2200), third in last year’s National League MVP voting, could steal Trout’s thunder during his first year in Los Angeles. An outstanding campaign from two-way threat Shohei Ohtani (+2000), who will get back to the mound for the first time since 2018, could also affect Trout's MVP claims.
The best CF on 🌎 !@Angels | #Top10RightNow | @MikeTrout pic.twitter.com/GfdFpvYiO5
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 12, 2020
Judge could miss more time in 2020
Trout’s nearest rival, Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge, is listed at +1100, yet he may miss Opening Day because of discomfort in his right pectoral muscle. His lack of durability (he missed 110 games over the last two seasons) is even scarier than Trout’s.
Last year’s runner-up, Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (+1700), will have the cloud of his team’s sign-stealing scandal hanging over his head, so he does not seem to be a great bet to challenge Trout in this market.
Aaron Boone just said he had a “great conversation” with Aaron Judge and feels good where he’s at. He also thinks Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton are on track to return earlier than believed
— Dan Federico (@DanJFederico) March 3, 2020
Athletics’ third baseman Matt Chapman (+2200) is an intriguing longshot to win AL MVP. He is far from a household name, but he has garnered significant support on the MVP ballot over the last two seasons, just his second and third big-league campaigns.
Chapman hit 36 home runs in 2019, had 91 RBIs, and was named to his first All-Star Game. He also won his second straight Platinum Glove, the award given to the best overall fielder among Gold Glove winners since 2011.
If Chapman can continue his progression in year four, he could earn the MVP Award at a nice price.
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