Over/Under on Ronald Acuna Jr. home runs set at 37.5 in 2021

Ronald Acuna Jr. is one of the most exciting players in baseball. At just 23 years old, the Atlanta Braves outfielder is entering his fourth MLB season, and judging by the betting props available, expectations are sky-high.

The prop that jumps out at me focuses on his home run total, which is set at 37.5. Acuna hit 26 dingers during his rookie season and surged to 41 in 2019 before hitting "only" 14 in a 46-game season one year ago. If the Acuna who hit .250 in the COVID-shortened season takes the field for the Braves this spring and summer, the Over may seem like a bad play.

Acuna's slugging percentage rose in 2020

However, despite that disappointing 2020 campaign, Acuna’s 162-game clips are robust. He’s averaging 42 homers and 100 RBI’s, even with that season factored in. Furthermore, while some of his totals were down, Acuna’s slugging percentage actually rose to .581, which was just outside the top 10 in the league.

Age and health are on Acuna's side

Some may see the 2020 stat line and think pitchers are starting to figure Acuna out. However, I believe he’s got every reason to crush the 37.5-homer total in 2021. He’s young enough to still be getting better as a hitter, and he doesn’t have a history of serious injuries.

Those who have read my prior prop columns focused on the upcoming season may have seen several Unders. However, this is one time where I think the total is far too low. I think Acuna is on the verge of a world-class season, and I want to be along for the ride.

MLB pick: Over 37.5 home runs