Over/Under on Giancarlo Stanton home runs set at 38.5 in 2021

There’s no gentle way to put it – Giancarlo Stanton has been a tremendous disappointment to the New York Yankees and their fans.

The 2021 season is officially the fourth of the Stanton era in the Bronx, though he’s played only 199 games through his first three years in pinstripes. That includes a mere 18 games in 2019, and just 23 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign (not including the playoffs).

There’s not much the Yankees can do with Stanton and his 13-year, $325 million contract other than try to get him out on the field every day. But when he’s at his best, Stanton can do amazing things. That’s why his season Over/Under for home runs has been set at 38.5, albeit with the Under significantly “juiced” at -130.

So where should bettors come down on Stanton’s 2021 home run count? Let’s investigate.

The case for the Over

Stanton has averaged 43 homers per 162 games over his 11-year career that began with the Florida Marlins in 2010. He hit as many as 59 homers in 2017 – agonizingly close to what many consider the legitimate major-league record of 61 held by Roger Maris – en route to NL MVP honors.

It was after that magnificent season that Stanton was dealt from Miami to New York. He hit 38 homers in 158 games with the Bombers in 2018 before injury troubles began to plague him. But the way Stanton is swinging the bat in Spring Training has many believing that his disappointing 2019 and 2020 seasons are a thing of the past. 

Among Stanton’s highlights this March is a 420-foot, 115.1 mph homer he hit on Wednesday night against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

“I feel good,” Stanton has told reporters during Spring Training. “During this time, it’s all about getting your rhythm and timing and getting your sequences right. The spring at-bats are good to build up.”

The case for the Under

While it’s not reasonable to expect Stanton to miss over 80% of the season – like he has in the last two years combined – his injury history is a long and concerning one.

Stanton suited up for only 123 games in 2012, and 116 in 2013. After playing 145 games in 2014, Stanton made repeat trips to the IL in 2015 and 2016, missing a total of 131 games.

Bettors should expect the Yankees to be cautious with Stanton and give him his fair share of rest days in 2021. That will make his voyage to 39 homers – a mark he’s reached only once – that much more difficult.

The verdict

Stanton has not come close to replicating his 2017 MVP season before or since. He hit 38 homers with the Yankees in 2018, but it took him 158 games to reach that mark. It’s highly unlikely he’ll play more than 150 games, even if he doesn’t hit the IL at all in 2021. Bettors would be wise to take the Under on Stanton’s home run total.