Over/Under on Aaron Judge home runs set at 34.5 in 2021

"All rise!," yelled Yankee Stadium’s notorious Bleacher Creatures whenever Aaron Judge stepped up to bat in the pre-pandemic days. Those who didn’t heed those instructions immediately often came around, as the 6'7" slugger has a habit of bringing fans to their feet with home runs.

Judge led the American League with 52 four-baggers in 2017, but missed large parts of 2018 and 2019 due to injuries. Still, he hit 27 homers in each of those seasons and had nine in 28 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. His proven power has led to an Over/Under total of 34.5 dingers this coming season.

Judge's power isn't in doubt

Judge is certainly talented enough to hit that number. He plays in an offense-friendly park and is part of a lineup that won’t allow pitchers to simply pitch around him and deal with other hitters. That’s not going to be a winning strategy most of the time, and he should see plenty of pitches to hit.

Judge's health remains a concern

The case against Judge, however, comes down to four dreaded words: "…if he stays healthy."

While Judge’s 2018 injury was a fluke (his wrist fractured when he was hit by a pitch), his 2019 issues included injuries to his oblique muscle and shoulder. In 2020, he suffered a calf strain, which was aggravated due to what those in the Yankees organization called a "failed rehab." That’s a pretty extensive list of ailments for a hitter just 28 years of age (29 in April).

There are other potential speed bumps to that 34.5 number, too. Judge strikes out a lot, and in fact has far more strikeouts (575) than hits (413) to this point in his career. Taller hitters with bigger strike zones have more to worry about in every at-bat, especially if bat speed slows down. Take, for instance, fellow 6’7” power hitter Richie Sexson, who hit 39 homers in 2005, finished 15th in the AL MVP voting that year, and was out of baseball just three short seasons later.

Recent history is against Judge

This isn’t to say Aaron Judge is done, and I hope he isn’t. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the most exciting hitters in baseball. However, there’s a lot to consider here, and a few significant facts and trends go against him.

MLB Pick: UNDER 34.5 HOME RUNS