Ohtani now favored to win AL MVP

The sensational Shohei Ohtani is finally beginning to live up to his advance billing as the next Babe Ruth in 2021.

He’s putting up solid numbers on the mound for the Los Angeles Angels, but he’s been even better with the bat. As a result, Ohtani has seen a drastic reduction in his odds for AL MVP, going from +3300 at the beginning of the season to his current +135 price as the favorite.

Should bettors be jumping on the Ohtani bandwagon, or are they better off looking elsewhere? Let’s investigate.

The case for Ohtani

Ohtani’s ability to excel on both offense and defense – sometimes in the same night – gives him a leg-up in the MVP race going forward. His .259 batting average could be better, but the Angels will gladly take his 16 homers – good for second in the AL – and 42 RBI (sixth in the league).

Ohtani has taken the mound eight times in 2021 and pitched to a 2.76 ERA, which would be good for sixth in the AL if he qualified. His WHIP is not too shabby either at 1.167, nor is his strikeout per nine innings rate of 12.8.

Mike Trout losing about six weeks to a calf injury will not help L.A.’s playoff chances, but it will likely aid Ohtani’s case for MVP. It’s much less likely now that he and his teammate will “steal” votes from one another. 

The case against Ohtani

There are several potential reasons not to bet Ohtani for MVP right now, and one is that the odds are simply too low for a wager that still won’t pay off for months. While it’s true that “there’s no value in a losing ticket,” bettors might want to consider looking elsewhere nonetheless.

Ohtani has not had the best luck with injuries since coming to the states. He missed all of 2019 and most of 2020 pitching-wise, and hit in just 150 of a possible 202 games in that span. The Angels – who have fallen to 27-31 without Trout – can’t afford to lose Ohtani for any length of time.

Even if Ohtani avoids injury, and voters choose to ignore L.A.’s performance in the standings, he seems bound to get into trouble on the mound based on his high walk rate of 5.5 per nine innings. He hasn’t turned in a bad start in 2021, at least not yet.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be a wiser wager

Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+240) is an RBI away from being the first Triple Crown winner in either league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012. He’s currently pacing the AL in batting average by a healthy margin, leading J.D. Martinez .338 to .321, and is clear by two home runs over Ohtani and Adolis Garcia. He trails Rafael Devers 48-47 in the RBI race.

If Guerrero is able to complete the Triple Crown, voters would be hard-pressed to deny him the MVP Award. As long as he stays close in all three categories and the Blue Jays continue to threaten for the playoffs, Guerrero’s argument could become much stronger than Ohtani’s by season’s end.