NL Wild Card Game preview: Brewers vs. Nationals
October 1st, 2019
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Milwaukee Brewers | +1.5 (-140) | +155 | Over 7.5 (-110) |
Washington Nationals | -1.5 (+120) | -180 | Under 7.5 (-110) |
After a marathon 162-game season, the Brewers will face the Nationals in a winner-take-all wild card game Tuesday night for the right to play the Dodgers in the National League Division Series.
Washington has been tabbed by oddsmakers as the favorite, which makes plenty of sense, with three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) on the hill against Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA), who has worked just four innings since July 21. However, an upset could be in the works based on recent trends and bullpen stats.
Washington has been tabbed by oddsmakers as the favorite, which makes plenty of sense, with three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) on the hill against Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA), who has worked just four innings since July 21. However, an upset could be in the works based on recent trends and bullpen stats.
Pitching, Mental Game, Big Games (Pitching with Emotion/Taking Energy Up). Max Scherzer.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 1, 2019
From: https://t.co/jdcAiZcUWX pic.twitter.com/9MJlsefsRg
Scherzer missed most of July and August with an injury and pitched poorly in September (5.16 ERA in five starts). Surprisingly, "Mad Max" has fared worse at home than he has on the road in 2019, with a rise in his ERA (2.64 on the road compared to 3.16 at Nationals Park) and opponent batting average (.218 as a visitor, .224 at home). A sizable difference can be found in Scherzer's strikeout/walk ratio, which is 11.3 on the road but just 5.65 at home.
However, Scherzer should get through six innings relatively unscathed, as Milwaukee outfielders Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain are combined 0-for-29 against Scherzer, with 12 strikeouts and no walks. It's the bullpen that Washington supporters must worry about. Manager Dave Martinez has probably developed an ulcer thanks to a Nationals relief corps that was next-to-last in ERA (5.68) during the regular season and 26th in blown saves (29). The Brewers, who went 20-7 in September, were ninth in OPS in the seventh inning or later this season (.763).
However, Scherzer should get through six innings relatively unscathed, as Milwaukee outfielders Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain are combined 0-for-29 against Scherzer, with 12 strikeouts and no walks. It's the bullpen that Washington supporters must worry about. Manager Dave Martinez has probably developed an ulcer thanks to a Nationals relief corps that was next-to-last in ERA (5.68) during the regular season and 26th in blown saves (29). The Brewers, who went 20-7 in September, were ninth in OPS in the seventh inning or later this season (.763).
Brandon Woodruff starts tomorrow in the wild card game. But the Brewers are expected to heavily rely on their bullpen to attempt to beat Max Scherzer and the Nationals.
— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) September 30, 2019
“With our personnel, it puts us in the optimal position to be successful.” https://t.co/LpuVPPvxUB
Woodruff (oblique) came off the IL on September 17, following a two-month absence, and tallied two scoreless appearances to end his season. The Mississippi native was a key contributor during the Brewers' 2018 postseason run, when he produced a 1.93 ERA and .0963 WHIP in three outings. He struck out 17 batters over 9 1/3 innings and walked just two.
Several Nationals batters have struggled against Woodruff in the past, including third baseman Anthony Rendon (1-for-9), shortstop Trea Turner (1-for-6) and right fielder Adam Eaton (1-for-6).
Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell can place his faith in a Brewers bullpen that is seventh in ERA over the last two weeks (2.73) and boasts the indomitable Josh Hader (37 saves).
MLB free play: Brewers moneyline
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