MLB picks: White Sox vs. Cubs, Rangers vs. Mariners

The “Windy City Showdown” gets underway at Wrigley Field tonight as the Chicago White Sox visit the Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., ESPN). We’ll handicap that matchup below, along with the series opener between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners.

Chicago White Sox (15-11) at Chicago Cubs (16-8), 8 p.m. ET

Bettors should expect the highly-potent offenses of the White Sox and Cubs to give a good account of themselves on Friday night.

Jon Lester starts for the Cubs, fresh off his worst outing of the year, as he allowed five runs on nine hits over six innings of work against the Milwaukee Brewers on Sunday. His strikeout numbers are way down this season, as he’s averaging just 5.5 per nine innings. By contrast, Lester’s career figure is 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The White Sox propensity to whiff (fifth-most strikeouts in baseball) should be mitigated as a result. Look for Jose Abreu and James McCann – 12-for-32 (.375) combined off Lester with two home runs – to get things going early.

Dallas Keuchel starts for the South Siders, and while his ERA is strong (3.07), he’s had trouble going past the sixth inning this year. His strikeout numbers are also weak (4.9 per nine innings), which won’t help him against a Cubs lineup that has the third-most strikeouts in the majors. Outfielder Ian Happ – who owns a 1.184 OPS over the last week – is the X-factor for the Baby Bears in this one, having never faced Keuchel before.

Neither bullpen is among the elite units in baseball. The White Sox are ninth in ERA (3.81) while the Cubs are 23rd (5.50), so no late lead is safe.

MLB pick: Over

Texas Rangers (10-14) at Seattle Mariners (8-19), 9:10 p.m. ET

The inferior offenses of both the Rangers and the Mariners should be kept largely quiet – at least early – on Friday night.

Texas suffered the ignominy of becoming the first team in baseball history to allow a grand slam in four straight games to the same team when the San Diego Padres swept them this week. But starter Kolby Allard had nothing to do with that dubious feat. He did well in his first two starts – allowing just one earned run over nine innings – before understandably struggling through three frames against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. It’s difficult to envision Seattle, 29th in runs per game (3.81), 27th in OBP (.297) and 22nd in homers (27), picking up where the Padres left off.

Nick Margevicius will toe the rubber for the Mariners in this one, and his most recent start was his best of 2020 as he held the Houston Astros to two runs over six frames. Through five appearances, his WHIP is a scant 0.91. The Rangers, 26th in runs per game (3.96), are likely in for another quiet night at the plate.

Let’s factor out the substandard bullpens of both the Rangers and Mariners (22nd and 28th in ERA, respectively) and make our wager in the first five innings market here.

MLB pick: Under 4.5 runs first five innings (-110)