MLB picks: Reds vs. Indians, Orioles vs. Marlins

A pair of four-game series wrap up Thursday night, as the Reds play the Indians and the Orioles face the Marlins.

Here are our best bets on the diamond.

Cincinnati Reds (5-7) at Cleveland Indians (7-6)

The Reds will try to salvage a split of their four-game series, with staff ace Luis Castillo on the mound against Carlos Carrasco. Bettors should expect little offense early.

Castillo had a brilliant first start against the Tigers on July 25, but when he faced them again six days later, they were able to figure him out and plated five runs in the first six innings.

“My sinker, my changeup, my fastball were all working well,” Castillo explained. “And what happened was, when people weren’t on base was when they hit me, and eventually they got clutch hits afterwards. It just kind of happens.”

Cleveland’s lineup offers Castillo a great chance to bounce back. The Indians are last in OPS this year (.546).

Carrasco had two quality starts in his first two outings of 2020, against the Royals and Twins. He’ll face a Reds offense that was held scoreless Wednesday night, which dragged their runs-per-game average over their last five contests down to 2.6.

Both starters will be aided by a sustained 11 mph wind blowing in from right-center field.

As for the bullpens, Cleveland boasts the second-best relief corps in the majors by ERA (1.47). Cincinnati's relievers are 25th by the same measure (5.84) but have trended in the right direction over the last seven days (2.63 ERA).

MLB free play: Under

Baltimore Orioles (5-6) at Miami Marlins (5-1)

The promising Jordan Yamamoto should make his 2020 debut for the Marlins a winning one against the Orioles.

Yamamoto’s 4.46 ERA last year was belied by his .191 opponent batting average. He struggled when runners got on base and allowed a .258 average in those situations.

Fortunately for Yamamoto, Baltimore’s offense has gone into the tank. The Orioles plated just one run over the first three games of this series and are also second worst in batting average with runners on this year (.220).

The Marlins’ much-improved bullpen, ninth by ERA (2.92 through 24 2/3 innings), should hold the fort once Yamamoto departs.

MLB free play: Marlins moneyline