MLB picks: Phillies vs. Marlins, Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks (Sept. 10)

The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins kick off a trying seven-game series on Thursday night, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up a traditional three-gamer. Here are our best bets for the evening.

Philadelphia Phillies (21-18) at Miami Marlins (19-19), 6:40 p.m. ET

Losses don’t get much uglier than the 29-9 shellacking the Marlins suffered to the Braves on Wednesday night, but they’re capable of wiping that bad taste out of their mouths as they return home to face the Phillies on Thursday evening.

Jake Arrieta (3-4, 5.67 ERA) gets the ball for Philadelphia, and he posted just his second quality start of the season against the Mets last time out (seven innings, two earned runs). Arrieta’s 5-1 record in seven combined starts against Miami over the last two seasons belies how ineffective he’s been on the mound against this lineup – his ERA in that span is 4.95, and his opponent batting average is .282.

The Marlins have plated 33 runs over their last five games (6.6 per tilt), with shortstop Miguel Rojas – batting .375 over his last 10 games – doing plenty of damage. The Fish should have no problem picking apart the Phillies’ league-worst bullpen (7.24 ERA) once Arrieta departs.

Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 3.78 ERA) counters for the Marlins, and he held the Phillies to one run through 6 2/3 innings on Opening Day before hitting the IL. He’s since returned with two uneven starts against the Rays. Alcantara should hold his own before turning things over to a Miami bullpen that, before Wednesday night, had the best ERA in the majors for the month of September (1.63).

MLB pick: Marlins moneyline

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Los Angeles Dodgers (32-12) at Arizona Diamondbacks (15-29), 9:45 p.m. ET

Over bettors should go back to the well for the series finale between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks at Chase Field this Thursday.

Madison Bumgarner (0-4, 8.44 ERA) makes his second start off the IL for Arizona, and this season has been a struggle for him. He’ll meet the Dodgers’ third-ranked lineup by runs per game (5.73) for the first time in 2020. Enrique Hernandez should prove effective if his number is called here – he’s 25-for-50 all-time against Bumgarner with four home runs. The D-backs bullpen has been nothing to write home about this year, and they’re 18th in ERA (4.54) this month.

Dustin May (1-1, 2.88 ERA) has been reliable for the Dodgers on the mound, but he’s not been allowed to throw more than 88 pitches in a game this season. He should get another quick hook from Dave Roberts, exposing the suddenly-vulnerable L.A. bullpen that’s 16th in ERA this month (4.46).

MLB pick: Over