MLB picks: Mets vs. Braves, Tigers vs. Mariners

We took a long look at the Monday MLB slate and came up with our two best bets for the evening!

First, we’ll dive into a nationally-televised series opener at Truist Park between the New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves. Then we’ll take a look at a matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners from T-Mobile Park.

New York Mets (18-16) at Atlanta Braves (19-21), 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN

Bettors should expect few runs to come across in the early stages of Monday’s matchup between the Mets and Braves.

Taijuan Walker has performed better than most Mets fans had dared hoped when the season began. He’s mowed down batters left and right in his last two starts, scattering one run over 14 innings while posting 12 strikeouts and only three walks.

Walker will face an Atlanta lineup that may be without NL MVP threat Ronald Acuna Jr., who is considered day-to-day with an ankle injury.

Max Fried counters for the Braves, and he’s shaken off a miserable beginning to 2021 with two excellent outings in a row. In 11 combined innings against the Washington Nationals and Toronto Blue Jays, Fried has allowed just two runs and only 10 baserunners.

He’ll tackle a depleted New York order that could be without both Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto, as well as Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis. Pete Alonso is 1-for-12 lifetime against Fried.

These bullpens are both in the bottom three in ERA over the last week of play, so don’t give them a chance to spoil your evening. Take the first five innings Under and cash in early.

MLB pick: Under 4.5 runs (first five innings)

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Detroit Tigers (14-26) at Seattle Mariners (21-20), 10:10 p.m. ET

Expect Casey Mize and Yusei Kikuchi to trade zeroes on Monday night as the Tigers visit the Mariners.

Mize has fired three straight quality starts for Detroit while allowing just 19 baserunners in his last 18 innings of work. He’ll face a Seattle offense that’s a modest 22nd in runs per game in 2021 (4.05).

Kikuchi has likewise tallied three consecutive quality outings on the mound, striking out 25 batters over a span of 20 1/3 innings. The Tigers’ offense is second from the bottom in runs per game this year (3.95), so don’t expect their bats to offer much resistance.

These bullpens have been two of the worst in baseball over the last two weeks (Detroit is 24th by ERA while Seattle is 27th), so bettors would be wise to factor them out of the handicapping and make a first five innings play instead.

MLB pick: Under 4.5 runs (first five innings)