MLB picks: Marlins vs. Phillies, Pirates vs. Braves

Let’s take a look at the best available bets for Thursday’s MLB slate.

Leading off is an NL East matchup between the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Then we’ll highlight a clash between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves.

Miami Marlins (19-23) at Philadelphia Phillies (22-21), 7:05 p.m. ET

Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is looking to shake off a disastrous start against the Los Angeles Dodgers in which he was charged with eight earned runs after just 1 1/3 innings. But the Phillies will not give him an easy time at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday night.

Alcantara has yet to face Philly this year, but over the last two seasons (31 1/3 innings), he’s produced a 1.532 WHIP against this opponent. Bryce Harper has been particularly dangerous at the plate for the Phils against Alcantara, going 6-for-16 (.375) with five walks.

Backing up Alcantara is a Miami bullpen that’s been mediocre lately, authoring a 4.06 ERA (15th) over the last two weeks.

Vince Velasquez counters for the Phillies, and his last three starts have been superb, as he’s scattered three earned runs over his last 17 innings of work while tallying 19 strikeouts. Velasquez can lean on a Philly bullpen that’s fifth in the majors over the last two weeks by ERA (2.58).

The Marlins have dropped eight of their last 11 road games, while the Phillies are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss.

MLB pick: Phillies -127

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Pittsburgh Pirates (17-25) at Atlanta Braves (20-23), 7:20 p.m. ET

Drew Smyly should be able to guide the Braves to another win against the Pirates on Thursday night.

Smyly served up nine home runs in just four April starts, but through two outings this month, he’s kept the ball in the park. In fact, he’s allowed just one earned run in 12 innings of work. Pittsburgh’s punchless offense – which is last in the majors in both homers (27) and runs per game (3.45) – shouldn’t offer much resistance.

Wil Crowe counters for the Pirates, sporting a modest 4.35 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. The Braves are ninth in the majors in runs per game (4.56) and have won five of their last six tilts against starters with a WHIP exceeding 1.30. Look for Freddie Freeman – finally heating up for the Braves (8-for-27, three homers last seven days) – to have another solid day at the dish.

The Pirates – 8-20 in their last 28 against teams with losing records – are significant underdogs here, so Braves bettors will have to get a bit creative to make a decent-sized score in this one.

MLB pick: Braves to score first and win (+133)