MLB picks: Indians vs. Reds, Royals vs. Cubs

A pair of interleague matchups present the best betting opportunities on the diamond Monday night.

Cleveland Indians (5-5) at Cincinnati Reds (4-5)

Bettors should expect few runs to be plated early in Monday night’s “Battle of Ohio” between the Indians and Reds.

Sonny Gray will toe the rubber for Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park, and he could not have pitched much better in his first two starts of 2020. He has surrendered just one run on four hits and three walks over 12 2/3 innings and earned a victory in each outing.

Gray has some positive matchup numbers against Cleveland’s best hitters, from his days in the American League. Cleveland infielders Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana are a combined 9-for-55 (.164) against him.

Zach Plesac will counter for the Indians, off a superb start against the White Sox, when he blanked their potent lineup over eight innings. He allowed only three hits and struck out 11 batters.

Plesac proved to be a better performer on the road in his rookie season, when he produced a 3.51 ERA and .228 opponent batting average over 56 1/3 innings. His ERA and opponent batting average at Progressive Field over 59 1/3 innings last year were 4.10 and .246. Plesac’s job was made a little easier Sunday morning, when Joey Votto reported COVID-19 symptoms.

The Reds’ bullpen seems due for a turnaround, but since that unit is still 29th in ERA (6.91), it’s impossible to wager with confidence in any scenario it is involved in.

MLB free play: Under four runs first five innings (EVEN)

Kansas City Royals (3-7) at Chicago Cubs (7-2)

After they suffered a series sweep against the White Sox over the weekend, the Royals will try to avoid a similar fate when they begin a four-game set with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. Based on the starting-pitching matchup, the situation does not appear promising for Kansas City.

Cubs starter Alec Mills will look to build off a solid initial outing (two runs on two hits and a pair of walks over six innings against the Reds). Mills recorded a 2.75 ERA over 36 innings in 2019. The Royals have been fairly punchless at the plate and rank 20th in OPS (.694).

Danny Duffy has fired two duds in his two appearances this season. He has coughed up six runs in just 9 1/3 innings. The southpaw is in danger of getting chased early again, as the Cubs are the second-best team in the majors in OPS against lefties (.918, 132 at-bats).  

MLB free play: Cubs moneyline