MLB picks: Giants vs. Mets, Nationals vs. Marlins

It’s a fairly crowded MLB Thursday slate, but we’ve managed to narrow things down to the two best bets of the evening!

Leading off is our look at the series finale between the San Francisco Giants and the New York Mets. Then we’ll highlight an NL East battle between the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins.

San Francisco Giants (82-44) at New York Mets (61-65), 7:10 p.m. ET

Two struggling starters in Alex Wood and Carlos Carrasco will meet at Citi Field on Thursday night as the top-class Giants (18-6 since the trade deadline) visit the middling Mets (7-18 since the trade deadline). The former is much more likely to get the win on the mound here.

Wood owns a 5.40 ERA through four starts this month, mainly due to his two rough outings against the Diamondbacks (nine runs allowed over 10 combined innings). He’s turned things around to some extent in his last two efforts, allowing only four earned runs over 11 2/3 combined innings against the Rockies and A’s, respectively. Wood should relish pitching against a New York lineup that’s 26th in OPS against lefties in 2021 (.694).

Carrasco has been roughed up throughout August, pitching to a 10.95 ERA and 1.865 WHIP. Bettors should be skeptical about his ability to handle baseball’s seventh-best road offense (4.83 runs per game) in this one.

“Cookie” has a decent bullpen backing him up – the Mets are eighth by ERA over the last two weeks (3.40) – but San Francisco’s relief corps has been par excellence over the same span, authoring an MLB-best 2.25 ERA.

MLB pick: Giants -124

---

Washington Nationals (54-71) at Miami Marlins (52-75), 7:10 p.m. ET

Over bettors appear to have plenty of leeway in the series finale between the Nationals and Marlins on Thursday night.

Patrick Corbin will toe the rubber for Washington, and his 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Brewers last time out looks like a fluke when compared to his horrid previous eight outings, in which he recorded a 7.42 ERA. He’ll have to pitch carefully to Jorge Alfaro, who hit the game-winning RBI single in the 10th inning on Wednesday.

Elieser Hernandez counters for Miami, and he’s mixed decent starts with mediocre ones in three separate stints in the majors this year. His latest effort in Cincinnati (four runs allowed over 4 2/3 innings) wasn’t awe-inspiring. 

Hernandez could have problems with the Nats’ Yadiel Hernandez, who’s 8-for-23 (.348) with three homers over his last seven games, including a blast on Wednesday night.

The starters probably won’t be the only pitchers struggling on the mound in this one. Washington’s bullpen is 27th by ERA over the last two weeks (5.49), while the Marlins’ relief corps ranks 29th in the same span (7.07).

MLB pick: Over