MLB picks: Cardinals vs. Dodgers, Mets vs. Diamondbacks

Memorial Day is often referred to as “the unofficial start of summer,” and what better way to kick off the season than with the “Boys of Summer?”

Our first of two holiday Monday selections occurs in the series opener between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Then we’ll look at another late game between the New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

St. Louis Cardinals (30-23) at Los Angeles Dodgers (31-22), 9:10 p.m. ET

A low total has been set with staff aces Jack Flaherty and Trevor Bauer on the hill for their respective clubs, but contrarian bettors should be rewarded on Monday night.

Flaherty turned in one of his worst efforts of the year last time out against the White Sox, allowing seven runs (three earned) in only 3 2/3 innings. His road ERA is a middling 3.94, and his opponent batting average is .234 (compared to .153 at home).

Since bottoming out at 18-17 on May 9, the Dodgers have plated 5.61 runs per game (13-5 record). They should tee off on a Cardinals bullpen that sports a 4.60 ERA over the last two weeks (21st in the majors) once Flaherty departs.

Bauer owns some bad numbers against the Redbirds’ best hitters; Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt are 8-for-15 (.533) combined against him with a homer and five RBI. He’s backed by a bullpen that’s produced a 4.64 ERA over the last two weeks, 23rd in baseball in that span.

MLB pick: Over

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New York Mets (25-20) at Arizona Diamondbacks (19-35), 9:40 p.m. ET

Despite being listed as heavy favorites, the Mets appear to be offering value against the woeful Diamondbacks on Monday night.

Jacob deGrom will make his second start since rejoining the rotation for the second time in what’s been an uneven month of May. deGrom missed a start before facing Arizona on May 9, limiting them to one run over five frames before being pulled early and eventually hitting the IL.

The D-backs will once again catch deGrom on extended rest (five days) due to a rain-out on Sunday. The two-time Cy Young winner is even better with more time between the starts, as his opponent batting average decreases (.223 on regular rest to .217 with an extra day) and his strikeout/walk ratio increases (4.52 to 5.55). Backing up deGrom is a Mets bullpen that’s seventh by ERA (2.66) over the last two weeks.

Countering for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who’s actually pitching well in May (3.52 ERA) but is still 0-3 in five starts. Part of the reason for his win-loss shortcomings is a subpar bullpen, which owns a modest 3.54 ERA over the last two weeks (11th). The D-backs’ offense has also been lackluster, leading to a 13-game losing streak that was only snapped on Sunday.

MLB pick: Mets -182