MLB picks: Braves vs. Orioles, Tigers vs. Blue Jays

Let’s get the weekend started on the right foot with our top two MLB bets for Friday night!

We’ll begin with our look at the series opener between the Atlanta Braves and the Baltimore Orioles. Then we’ll discuss the first of a three-game set between the Detroit Tigers and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Atlanta Braves (65-56) at Baltimore Orioles (38-82), 7:05 p.m. ET

The Braves look like a near-lock to beat the Orioles on Friday night, and their moneyline odds reflect that. But bettors can still get creative and cash at a decent price with Atlanta in this spot.

Keegan Akin will toe the rubber for Baltimore, so it seems likely that the Braves will plate the first run of the game very early, perhaps in the first inning. Akin was briefly removed from the rotation after watching his ERA balloon from 3.60 to 8.19 over a seven-start span (0-5 record) concluding on July 16. Since rejoining the rotation on Aug. 10, Akin has surrendered nine earned runs over seven frames.

Starting for Atlanta is Max Fried, who’s been very sharp over his last three outings, producing a 1.00 ERA over 18 innings. It’s hard to envision the Orioles – losers of 15 straight by more than one run – getting much going against this southpaw.

The Braves’ bullpen hasn’t been much to write home about over the last two weeks, as they’re 20th by ERA over that span (4.86). But the Baltimore relief corps has been dismal in that same stretch, recording an MLB-worst 8.40 ERA.

Expect Atlanta to take the lead and never look back here.

MLB pick: Braves to score first and win (-137)

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Detroit Tigers (58-65) at Toronto Blue Jays (63-56), 7:07 p.m. ET

The Tigers and Blue Jays should play a fairly low-scoring game at Rogers Centre this Friday, at least early on.

Tyler Alexander starts for Detroit, and if you exclude his follow-up outings against the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians, he has a solid 2.76 ERA in a four-start sample. He’s yet to face Toronto this season, giving him a leg-up over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and company.

Robbie Ray responds for the Blue Jays, and he’s pitched brilliantly in his last three starts despite not recording a win, authoring a 1.89 ERA. Like Alexander, this is a new opponent on the year for Ray.

The trends point toward the Under cashing here; it’s 11-2 in Toronto’s last 13 games against left-handed starters, and 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these clubs. But these beleaguered bullpens (the Blue Jays are 23rd by ERA over the last two weeks at 5.05, while the Tigers are 25th at 5.33) could cost Under bettors late. The smart bet is to cash in at fair odds in the first five innings market.

MLB pick: Under 4.5 runs first five innings (+116)