MLB odds update: Mets may be offering value

The New York Mets have been decimated by injuries (again) this season, yet somehow they’re managing to hang onto first place in the NL East. The Mets have gone 14-7 since bottoming out at 11-13 on May 5 despite having to field lineups with as few as two Opening Day starters available on multiple occasions. They’ve also had to get creative with their starting pitchers, relying on “openers” and minor-league call-ups.

The Mets are expected to get most of their injured players back in the coming weeks, but optimism is running low in the World Series market. New York is currently +950 to win it all, a half-point higher than they were on May 1. They’ve also been leap-frogged by the Chicago White Sox (+700) and San Diego Padres (+800) in recent weeks.

Are the Mets a wise wager, or are bettors better off looking elsewhere? Let’s investigate.

The case for the Mets

The Mets are getting one phenomenal start after another from Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, with the trio combining for a 1.77 ERA over 152 1/3 innings. But even they haven’t been spared from the injury bug entirely, with deGrom missing two starts and Walker missing one.

New York has shown how deep their roster is this season, with the “replace-Mets” helping win game after game this month. Johnathan Villar has been front-and-center, amassing five hits and four walks in his last four games. He’s also played excellent defense, and has been a terror on the basepaths.

Backup catcher Tomas Nido, getting more starts with James McCann forced to play first base in relief of the injured Pete Alonso, is batting .298 this month with three homers and 11 RBI.

The bullpen has been solid for the most part, with Edwin Diaz locking down each of his first nine save chances, and Jeurys Familia serving as an excellent bridge in the seventh and eighth innings. Trevor May and Aaron Loup have also done their part, recording five holds apiece. Seth Lugo, expected to return on Monday, adds to the firepower in relief.

The case against the Mets

The Mets’ rotation depth has been tested, and the results have been ugly at times. Carlos Carrasco is not expected to make his Mets debut until mid-July, and Noah Syndergaard suffered a setback from Tommy John recovery and has been shut down for six weeks. A long-term injury to deGrom, Stroman, Walker, or even David Peterson would be devastating at this point.

New York recently got bad news regarding Jeff McNeil’s and Michael Conforto’s recovery times, but they’re excited to get Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso back. However, it’s not like Nimmo and Alonso were tearing the cover off the ball prior to their respective IL stints. The Mets didn’t fall to 25th in OPS (.665) overnight. Francisco Lindo batting .191 in year one of a 10-year, $341 million contract wasn’t part of the plan either.

The Orange and Blue have been living dangerously with Robert Gsellman, Jacob Barnes and Miguel Castro getting multiple high-leverage chances due to overuse of their other bullpen arms. Diaz being notoriously unreliable in non-save chances is just another mine that manager Luis Rojas has to negotiate late in games.

The verdict

The Mets have endured a rash of injuries, and luck is bound to be on their side in the second half of the season. Owner Steve Cohen has not been shy about making acquisitions, so expect New York to be active at the deadline too. Now is a good time to “buy low” on the Mets.