MLB odds update: Lance Lynn surging in AL Cy Young market

Two months ago, the AL Cy Young race seemed like a foregone conclusion; New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole was the odds-on -150 favorite, while Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians and Tyler Glasnow of the Tampa Bay Rays lagged behind at +600 each. Chicago White Sox starter Lance Lynn was a dark-horse fourth-choice at +1000.

Things have changed dramatically since then, with Lynn now assuming the favorite’s role at -240, and Cole slipping to second-choice status at +300. Do bettors have it right? Or should we be looking elsewhere for value? Let’s dive in.

Cole endured bumpy road last two months

Cole has enabled himself to get caught and passed in this race by Lynn with two months of modest numbers.

His ERA jumped from 1.23 on June 9 – about the time when MLB announced a crackdown on foreign substances was coming – to 3.11 over his last eight starts. Cole hit the COVID IL on Aug. 3 and hasn’t pitched since.

Despite his recent absence, Cole is still the AL leader in strikeouts with 176. He’s also pacing the junior circuit in WHIP at 0.990. But his 10-6 win-loss record (for whatever that’s worth in 2021) won’t “wow” anyone, nor will his 130 1/3 innings of work, which falls short of the Top 10.

Lynn will have analytics crowd on his side

In terms of the “big three” pitching categories – Wins, Strikeouts, and ERA – Lynn has a fairly middling résumé.

He’s pacing the AL in ERA at 2.26 – though that’s risen thanks to a 4.50 ERA over his last three starts – while sitting in a tie for fourth at 10 victories. He’s not even in the Top 10 in strikeouts, with only 137 to his credit. Lynn also falls short of the Top 10 in innings pitched (119 2/3), another traditional Cy Young barometer.

But according to Baseball-Reference.com, Lynn is second in WAR at 4.3, trailing only Robbie Ray of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Indiana native is the clear frontrunner in ERA+ at 191, while also leading in Adjusted Pitching Wins (2.8) and Adjusted Pitching Runs (27).

Those who understand and appreciate sabermetrics are gaining more of a say in these races by the year, and will certainly flock to Lynn’s side at this rate.

Don’t sell Chris Bassitt short

Oakland A’s ace Chris Bassitt earned his first All-Star nod this year, yet still seems to be flying under the radar at +1800 in this market. Considering Lynn sat at boxcar odds just two months ago, it would be unwise to overlook Bassitt’s chances now.

The Ohio native is currently tops in the AL in both wins (12) and innings pitched (150). Name a category and Bassitt is probably within the Top 5; he’s third in ERA (3.06), second in WHIP (1.033), fifth in strikeouts (153), and even fifth in WAR (3.6).

If he keeps this up, and the A’s make a playoff push, Bassitt’s name will likely start showing up on AL Cy Young leaderboards much more than it is now.