MLB Labor Day picks: Royals vs. Indians, Yankees vs. Blue Jays

Let’s take a look at the Labor Day evening slate as we highlight the best bets on the diamond.

Kansas City Royals (14-27) at Cleveland Indians (25-15), 6:10 p.m. ET, MLBN

The Royals and Indians will renew acquaintances at Progressive Field on Monday night, and this one has all the makings of a very low-scoring game.

Zach Plesac showed no signs of rust in his first start after being demoted, holding this Kansas City lineup (which is 29th in runs per game this year at 3.83) to one run over six frames while striking out six on Sept. 1. That lowered his season ERA to 1.33. Plesac has Cleveland’s third-ranked bullpen (2.81 ERA) behind him.

Brad Keller counters for the Royals, and he held the Indians (24th in runs per game at 4.17) to only one run in 6 1/3 innings of work on Aug. 31. K.C.’s bullpen, 10th by ERA in 2020 (4.05), did the rest of the lifting in a 2-1 victory. Keller has three quality starts in five appearances this season and owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

The trends also suggest there will be minimal offense here – the Under is 12-5-1 in the Royals’ last 18 divisional games, and 19-7-1 in the Indians’ last 27 games with the total set between 7.0 and 8.5.

MLB Labor Day pick: Under

New York Yankees (21-19) at Toronto Blue Jays (22-18), 6:37 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays are trending upward and send their ace to the hill in Hyun-Jin Ryu on Monday night, yet they’re only nominal favorites against Jordan Montgomery and the sliding Yankees at Sahlen Field. Bettors should be all over Toronto in this one.

Since cratering at 7-11 on Aug. 17, the Blue Jays are 15-7. Ryu has powered them to three of those victories, and he’s been dominating opposing hitters since the calendar flipped to August. His ERA over his last six starts is a microscopic 1.06. Ryu is backed by a reliable Toronto bullpen that’s fourth in the majors by ERA (3.11).

The Yankees are just 5-13 since peaking at 16-6 on Aug. 17. Montgomery (5.76 ERA) has had all kinds of trouble pitching deep into games – he lasted just two-thirds of an inning when matched up with the pesky Rays on Wednesday night. Montgomery will want to be extremely careful with hot-hitting left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr., fresh off a four-hit game against the Red Sox and batting .500 over his last 28 at-bats.

MLB Labor Day pick: Blue Jays moneyline