Is Gerrit Cole a lock for the AL Cy Young Award?
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole during a spring-training workout. (Photo by /Icon Sportswire)
February 24th, 2020
Gerrit Cole was the most sought-after free agent in baseball this winter, and the Yankees grabbed him with a record-breaking, nine-year, $324 million contract.
The 29-year-old starter has never won a Cy Young Award in his seven-year career but was a close second in 2019 to Astros teammate Justin Verlander, even though Cole led the league in ERA (2.50) and strikeouts (326).
Oddsmakers have established Cole as a +275 favorite to win the AL Cy Young, perhaps too strong a favorite, considering the hurdles in front of him.
Odds to win the 2020 AL Cy Young Award
| Player | 2020 AL Cy Young Odds |
|---|
Gerrit Cole | +275 |
Chris Sale | +600 |
Justin Verlander | +800 |
Blake Snell | +1100 |
Shane Bieber | +1200 |
Minute Maid Park has never been considered a pitcher’s paradise, but Cole played much better at home than on the road last year.
His WHIP at home (17 starts) was 0.788, compared to 1.017 everywhere else (16 starts). His strikeout-walk ratio increased dramatically at home (9.16), compared to his away figure (5.24). Cole’s numbers could regress as he moves to Yankee Stadium, a veritable hitter’s haven, in 2020.
Gerrit Cole, Fastball (W/Tail and Sound). 🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ioen6Bvkjq
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 20, 2020
As dominant as Cole was from May 27 on (when he started his streak of 26 games without a loss, playoffs inclusive), it’s easy to forget he was 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA through his first 11 starts. Another slow beginning could torpedo his Cy Young chances in 2020.
Glasnow could have a breakthrough year in 2020
Bettors looking for value in this market should consider the Rays’ Tyler Glasnow (+1800).
He jumped out to an early season lead in the Cy Young race last season (6-1, 1.86 ERA through eight starts), before a forearm injury knocked him out for nearly four months. Glasnow shook off the rust when he returned in September but struggled in two playoff starts in Houston. For obvious reasons he gets a pass for those sub-par efforts.
George Springer hit .340 off of fastballs this year.
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) October 4, 2019
Tyler Glasnow just struck him out on three straight. pic.twitter.com/F40qImUYp8
The main reasons for Glasnow’s dramatic improvement in 2019 (4.51 career ERA) were the significant drops in his walk rate (2.1 per nine innings, compared to 4.3 in 2018) and home-run rate (0.6 per nine innings last year, 1.2 in 2018).
If he can sustain those numbers over a full season on a competitive Tampa team, Glasnow could cash in at a nice price.
Opening day is just around the corner. Bet on MLB futures now at BetAmerica!
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