Handicapping the MLB home run race

One of the most popular preseason wagers in baseball is the “most home runs” prop, as it usually offers large odds on just about every player. Last year’s home run leader, Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, is the +1000 co-favorite along with Angels center fielder Mike Trout and Rangers right fielder Joey Gallo. However, bettors may want to stay clear of all three players. Alonso could battle a sophomore slump in 2020, Trout has never led the league in homers despite three career MVP campaigns, and Gallo is too strikeout-prone. Here are our value selections in this market as we look to beat the chalk.

Nolan Arenado (+1800)

Nolan Arenado, the Rockies’ seven-time Gold Glove Award-winning third baseman, has not gotten all the credit he deserves from MVP voters as he’s never won the award in his seven-year career. However, the five-time Silver Slugger tallied the most home runs in the National League in 2015, 2016, and 2018. Arenado is as consistent as they come as he’s a .295 career hitter who’s suited up for at least 155 games in five straight seasons. As usual, he’ll play half his games in the hitter’s haven known as Coors Field, which has seen the second-most home runs hit over the last five years. It would not be a surprise to see his name atop the home run leaderboard at season’s end.

Eugenio Suarez (+2200)

Eugenio Suarez emerged as one of the game’s most dangerous hitters in 2019, clubbing 49 longballs while patrolling third base for the Reds. That continued a growing trend for Suarez, who has seen his home run total increase from 26 to 34 to 49 in his last three seasons. Over the last five years, Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park has seen more homers than only four MLB stadiums (Coors Field, Camden Yards, Citizens Bank Park, and Yankee Stadium). With the additions of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos to the order, teams will find it harder to pitch around Suarez.

Max Kepler (+8000)

No team crushed more home runs than the Twins last year (307), and right fielder Max Kepler was at the forefront of the attack with 36 dingers. In addition to his career-high in longballs, the Berlin native also tallied high-water marks in batting average (.252) and RBI (90) while playing in just 134 games. If Kepler can keep his momentum going and stay healthy, he could turn out to be very live in this market. 

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