Gerrit Cole favored to lead MLB in wins, strikeouts in 2021
New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole (45) delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays on Aug. 08, 2020 at Tropicana Field. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)
February 24th, 2021
When Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Shane Bieber won the pitching triple crown (wins, ERA, strikeouts) in 2020, he accomplished something that no major-leaguer had done since 2011 – lead baseball in wins and strikeouts. But if oddsmakers are correct, New York Yankees ace and AL Cy Young frontrunner Gerrit Cole will repeat the feat in 2021.
Can Cole cash in as the favorite in both the “Most Wins” and “Most Strikeouts” markets? Let’s start investigating.
Most Wins: The case for Cole
Wins are a collaborative effort between the pitcher and his offense. Fortunately for Cole (+1200), he can count on plenty of run support once more.
DJ LeMahieu was brought back on a six-year, $90 million contract to help set the table for the Bombers’ power bats that include Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Luke Voit. Even with Judge and Stanton missing for weeks at a time (again) in 2020, New York managed to rank fifth in home runs hit last season.
Cole recorded 20 wins as recently as 2019, and has averaged 17 wins a season over his eight-year career.
Pitchers to lead MLB in Wins and Strikeouts in same season, last 25 years
| Name & Year | Wins | Strikeouts |
|---|
Shane Bieber (2020) | 8 | 122 |
Justin Verlander (2011) | 24 | 250 |
Justin Verlander (2009) | 19 | 269 |
Johan Santana (2006) | 19 | 245 |
Randy Johnson (2002) | 24 | 334 |
John Smoltz (1996) | 24 | 276 |
Most Wins: Live longshot
"Lady Luck" was not on the side of Chicago White Sox ace Lucas Giolito (+1400) in 2020, as he wended his way to a 4-3 record despite pitching about as well as he did in 2019, when he went 14-9. His ERA (3.41 in 2019 to 3.48 in 2020) and WHIP (1.064 to 1.037) bear that out.
Congrats, Lucas Giolito 👏
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 26, 2020
He completed the first no-hitter of the 2020 MLB season 🔥 pic.twitter.com/o6pdv5njSH
The White Sox may not have been quite ready for primetime last season, but young stars Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez gained valuable postseason experience. The addition of Liam Hendriks to the bullpen should alleviate concerns about losing wins late for Giolito.
Most Strikeouts: The case for Cole
Cole (+450) has developed into a strikeout machine on the mound in recent seasons. He was third in the majors in punchouts in 2018 (276) and first in 2019 (326) before settling for sixth with 94 Ks in 2020.
Cole doesn’t just get by on volume either, as he led the majors in strikeouts per nine innings in both 2018 (12.4) and 2019 (13.8). He is clearly the one to beat in this department.
Most Strikeouts: Live longshot
Bettors should not be too quick to dismiss three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (+1000) as a contender for most strikeouts in his 14th MLB season.
Max Scherzer finished 2020 with a 3.74 ERA for the #Nats. It was the first time he didn't finish with a sub-3.00 ERA since joining the club in 2015. He did post his sixth straight season with a strikeout rate of 30.0% or higher, though. #FantasyBaseball (via Pro Films/YT) pic.twitter.com/jEZGNP98Px
— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) November 21, 2020
The Nationals workhorse saw his ERA rise to 3.74 in 2020 – his highest mark since 2012 – but he was still a respectable ninth in strikeouts (92), only two behind Cole in sixth place. Incredibly, Scherzer has ranked in the top four in strikeouts per nine innings in every season since 2012.
Don't be surprised if Scherzer is in the running for another NL Cy Young in 2021, if he stays healthy.
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